2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a Week 18 finale that saw nine comeback opportunities, the 2025 regular season is in the books. I can’t recall a crazier season than this one with none of the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bills winning their division, and the first two didn’t even have a winning record.

Seven new division winners is a record, and somehow the only team that repeated (Eagles) is from the division that never repeats (first time since 2004).

We might see a Trevor Lawrence vs. Sam Darnold Super Bowl at this point. That’s why I was worried my preseason predictions would be the worst they ever were, but they weren’t. In fact, by being off by an average of 2.72 wins, I’ve had five seasons since 2013 that were less accurate.

One difference this year is I only got one team exactly right, and it was the Steelers finishing 10-7. Barely. But I only had five teams where I was off by 5+ games, so that’s not too bad.

Onto the playoffs.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Seahawks at 49ers: The No. 1 Seed

It didn’t necessarily look like a battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, because the Seahawks and 49ers repeatedly made mistakes to keep the score so low in this 13-3 final. In fact, the game set history for the fewest points ever in the NFL despite both quarterbacks completing over 70% of their passes and both running games averaging over 4.0 yards per carry:

But the Seahawks prevailed because their defense was the best unit in the game. It helps when the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams or Ricky Pearsall, but the 49ers scored their fewest points in a game under Kyle Shanahan since they managed just a field goal in his debut against Carolina way back in 2017.

Brock Purdy was held to 127 yards on 19 completions, and Christian McCaffrey had a rough night with 23 yards on 8 carries. He also tipped a pass deep in the red zone for a killer interception in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 13-3.

Speaking of which, the 49ers are now 0-50 when trailing by 8+ points in the fourth quarter under Shanahan. I’ve seen the stat posted as 0-47, but I think that misses a couple playoff games, and it’s possible Stathead has a data error for a game that doesn’t belong. But I know the 0 wins is 100% accurate as Shanahan’s teams have never been able to make these comebacks, and butterfingers on a pick like that won’t help.

Sam Darnold got through a big game without any turnovers, though he did nearly lose a fumble and got lucky on a sideline throw where a defender only got one foot in bounds. But he was okay outside of taking a brutal sack on 1st-and-goal at the 1 on the opening drive before misfiring on fourth-and-goal. His running backs absolutely dominated with 230 yards from scrimmage between the duo.

The Seahawks missed field goals from 47 and 26 (WTF?), so that kept the score low too even though they dominated the game in first downs (23-9) and yards (361-173).

It means Seattle has a week off and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, something they had in their three previous Super Bowl trips (2005, 2013-14). The 49ers will have to travel and win some road games if they want to get back to Levi’s Stadium for Super Bowl 60.

The 49ers’ stock definitely takes a hit from this game, but I’m still not sold on the Seahawks as a Super Bowl team. But we have time to get into that the next two weeks or more.

Ravens at Steelers: Game of the Weekend

I can tell my Steelers fandom isn’t what it used to be, because I should have been a basket case watching that fourth quarter, which was as dramatic as any game this season with everything on the line.

But I was almost resigned to the fact of a Baltimore win, and I had a good vision for the playoffs with a Baltimore win, including a potential AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Ravens.

But that’s all moot now after Aaron Rodgers delivered one of his most clutch comebacks in his long career given the D.K. Metcalf suspension and the way they leaned on him heavily with a season-high 294 passing yards. That good old Baltimore defense, always ripe for hitting up for big yards and a double-digit comeback. You could see things trending that way even before Kyle Hamilton was injured in the third quarter as the Steelers should  have finished the last drive of the first half with 6 before a goal-line stop.

However, the Steelers had some mental lapses on defense and left receivers wide open for Lamar Jackson, who hit them either for long touchdowns or what should have been a game-winning play to Likely to set up the field goal. But you definitely don’t love taking a 2-yard knee and not giving the ball to Derrick Henry for some more yards to get closer when you had a timeout left. Always get closer in that stadium for a kick of 40+ yards.

I had picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year with the idea that 2025 would finally be the year they protect the ball and not screw things up with the season on the line. But my worry this summer was the rookie kicker, Tyler Loop, screwing things up in taking over for [REDACTED] and missing a do-or-die field goal.

Remember, the Ravens were in this position because Chris Boswell, usually one of the most reliable kickers in the game, missed the extra point. He’s been terrible the last three weeks for some reason, and he almost helped end the team’s season as they hung onto a 26-24 lead instead of 27-24.

But whether it was nerves for a rookie, a cold night, or the holy water thrown on that end of the end zone before the game, but fate smiled on the Steelers and Loop’s 44-yard field goal was wide right, ending Baltimore’s season, maybe John Harbaugh’s coaching tenure, and sending the Steelers to the playoffs with their first AFC North title since 2020.

Talk about streaks colliding next week. The Steelers are on a 6-game losing streak in the playoffs, allowing at least 28 points in every game (NFL record). But they’ve won 23 straight home games on Monday night with no losses since 1991, and it’s a Monday night game with Houston, who I felt last year was the kind of team the Steelers would need to face to end the streak as they shouldn’t have the offense that can light up the Steelers.

Maybe things with Rodgers, who gets Metcalf back, will be different this time. Maybe it’ll be another 21-0 deficit before you can blink (Chargers did fall behind 14-0 to Houston in 5:00 two weeks ago).

But in this twisted AFC, I’m actually feeling a little optimistic about the Steelers again and looking forward to Monday night.

Panthers at Buccaneers: The Funniest NFC South Ending, Part 1

Objectively, this game sure felt like the officiating was in favor of Tampa Bay to make sure it came down to Sunday’s game in Atlanta. There were some atrocious calls on a fumble, a weak OPI call that wiped out a big play in the third quarter, Cade Otton getting DPI for tripping over his own feet, a missed facemask, etc.

Officiating aside, I thought the quarterbacks handled the wet and rainy conditions well outside of a bad pick thrown by each. Bryce Young didn’t take any sacks, and he still threw for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns with literally no help from the running game (12 carries for 20 yards).

In fact, the running back position killed this game for Carolina in the fourth quarter when Rico Dowdle fell to the ground and tried to pitch the ball back to Young on a flea-flicker, and the Bucs recovered that fumble in a 16-7 game. Killer stuff, and no, you should never be trying a flea-flicker at the opponent 20 as that takes away the real long deep ball you’d like to set up from that. That’s why I question if that was actually the call or if Dowdle just tried to ad-lib after falling.

That was a crushing blow even with the Bucs getting their 36-yard field goal blocked on the other end. By the time the Panthers scored their touchdown and used their timeouts to get the ball back in a 16-14 game, just 18 seconds remained at their own 3-yard line. Tough for even the Carolina Reaper to do anything in that spot.

Alas, they had a backup route to the playoffs…

Saints at Falcons: The Funniest NFC South Ending, Part 2

We got the perfect ending to the 2025 NFC South as the Falcons did in fact beat the Saints to help Carolina win the division for the first time since 2015. Everything was coming up Carolina’s way in this game, including a late interception by Tyler Shough (otherwise played well) that probably locked up OROY for Tetairoa McMillan too.

Wild that you can get this much going your way by losing your last two games like Carolina did. But even with winning enough games to get to 8-9 and force that three-way tie, the Falcons still fired coach Raheem Morris. Can’t say I disagree with that one. This team should have won the division this year and blew it.

Now, the Saints might end up being the winner next year if they can add a few pieces around Shough.

Chargers at Broncos: Trey Lance Tried (Sorta)

The Chargers started Trey Lance instead of Justin Herbert, and it went about as poorly as you expected. He threw a pick-six, but the defense kept the Chargers hanging around all day before the Broncos pulled away late to win the No. 1 seed.

I get the idea of Sean Payton “saving things” for the playoffs on offense since he could see this team again in two weeks if the Chargers upset the No. 2 Patriots on the road. But it was still not an encouraging game on offense from Bo Nix and company.

Dolphins at Patriots: No Repeat of 2019

I guess you need a Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to go into Foxboro for a finale upset if you’re Miami. That’s a callback to 2019 when the Patriots blew a first-round bye. You don’t get a bye for the No. 2 seed anymore, but the Patriots wrapped it up by making short order of the Dolphins. The running back duo scored five touchdowns in a variety of ways.

I haven’t seen any news on Mike McDaniel getting fired, so maybe he ends up coming back without Tua Tagovailoa in 2026.

Jets at Bills: Mitch Trubisky Caps Off Historic Season for QBs Facing Jets

You see why the schedule matters? The Jets played such a pathetic month of football that they gave up 6 touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence, 5 touchdowns to Drake Maye, and Mitch Trubisky hit them with 4 to end their season allowing 36 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions, new NFL records for futility. Only the Jets.

James Cook is lucky Derrick Henry slowed down in the second half or he would have lost that rushing title to him. But the Bills got to pad some defensive stats in the win and now have to face the Jaguars on the road in maybe the most interesting game of wild card weekend.

Colts at Texans: Maybe Riley Leonard Should Have Started?

I’m not saying the Colts make the playoffs if they start Riley Leonard instead of bringing Philip Rivers out of retirement. But maybe they should trust their coach and start Leonard when he was healthy? I was shocked at how he was taking it to Houston on the road in his first NFL start, and they were playing starters on defense when he did his most damage in the first half.

Unfortunately, even with the Texans calling off some dogs in the second half, Davis Mills led a game-winning drive and the Texans still won 32-30 to get to 12-5. But Steichen can coach offense, and it’s just unfortunate what happened to the Colts this year and how poorly the Sauce Gardner trade will age, especially if they try to get the draft resources together to steal Arch Manning in 2027.

Titans at Jaguars: Short Work

Watching Trevor Lawrence scramble in the third quarter with a 31-7 lead had me holding my breath. Get him on the sideline; this one was over. But great winning streak by the Jaguars to end the season, and Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career. Cam Ward unfortunately got injured on a touchdown scramble run, the first time he missed snaps this year. Get him a coach and he could be much better in 2026.

Chiefs at Raiders: Damn, Can Spags Hold Any Lead?

The Chiefs finish 2025 with 0 saves on defense (upheld a one-score lead in the fourth quarter/overtime) and 4 blown leads. They even gave up two more game-winning drives in the games Mahomes didn’t start. Spags really can’t stop anyone in crunch time, including Aidan O’Connell in the final minute.

The 2025 Chiefs without Mahomes are the first offense since the 2009 Raiders (JaMarcus Russell) to go three straight games without 170 yards of offense. If that was Travis Kelce’s final game, yikes. The Raiders got the win and still got the No. 1 pick on top of it.

But that’s also probably the last game in the coaching career of Pete Carroll. He was fired on Monday after one terrible season.

Browns at Bengals: Garrett Gets the Record in Stunning Fashion

It didn’t look like Myles Garrett was going to set the sack record after all. But with just over 5:00 left, he timed the snap perfectly and buried Joe Burrow for No. 23. I thought it was a little odd the way the game just stopped for it, but the Bengals should have used the time to come up with a better play.

While Joe Burrow did lead a rare go-ahead drive in the final minutes, he botched the critical 2-point conversion. That’s so costly in a 18-17 game where you open yourself up to losing by a field goal, which is more likely than ever now with the new kickoff rule and kicker’s range. Sure enough, Shedeur Sanders led his first game-winning drive with the Browns getting the walk-off field goal to make Garrett’s happy day even happier.

That makes up for Week 1 when the Browns choked on a go-ahead field goal late in the game against the Bengals. But what a sign of the times. The Browns win this game and fire Kevin Stefanski after six years. The Bengals lose again and are keeping Zac Taylor for 2026, reportedly.

Never change, Bungles.

Cardinals at Rams: Stafford Should Wrap Up MVP

The Rams played starters to go for the No. 5 seed, and it was one of those weeks where the Cardinals made it a close game, trailing only 23-20 to start the fourth quarter. But Stafford threw two more touchdowns to push his season total to 46, and the Rams finished 12-5, making the 2025 NFC West the first division ever with three 12-win teams.

I already wrote that I’m voting Stafford for MVP this year. Oddly enough, I think the Seattle loss cemented his case for me, doing what he did that night on the road without Adams in what should have been a win that led to the No. 1 seed. Then you watch what Bryce Young and Brock Purdy, two quarterbacks going to the playoffs, did against that Seattle defense in the next two games. Like two different sports.

The Rams should be disappointed with a 12-5 record though. They were in every game late and just didn’t close enough of them, and quarterback play is far down the list of reasons for that.

But maybe they’ll get a revenge tour in the playoffs, starting with the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.

Lions at Bears: Not Loving the Vibes, Ben

Can’t say I liked the way the Bears were down 16-0 at home when they had a chance to lock up the No. 2 seed with a win and drop Detroit under .500 in the process. They did eventually tie the game, but they didn’t close this time, and the Lions got a walk-off field goal to finish 9-8.

The No. 2 seed still worked out for them, but I wasn’t a big fan of the way Johnson handled this finale. Now it’s a rematch with Green Bay.

Commanders at Eagles: Backup Bowl

It’s not like the Eagles knew the Bears would lose to Detroit, but I’m still a bit down on Nick Sirianni for not trying to win this one with starters and get the No. 2 seed. I think I’d much rather play the Packers (injured team) first than the 49ers, and I’d much rather have home-field than go to Chicago should that 3-2 matchup come to fruition in the divisional round.

But the Eagles blew a 17-10 lead in the fourth quarter to Josh Johnson, and that’s why they’re going to play the 49ers now. A matchup we should have seen in the playoffs by now to get a rematch for the 2022 NFC-CG spoiled by Brock Purdy’s elbow injury on the 49ers’ first drive.

Cowboys at Giants: Why’d They Do Dak Like That?

Dak Prescott had won 12 games in a row against the Giants, had a chance to lead the NFL in passing yards, had a chance to finish .500 (8-8-1), and the Cowboys just ran it and benched him at halftime with 70 yards while the Giants rolled to a 34-17 win. I don’t get that at all, except maybe they wanted the Giants to get a weaker draft pick.

Packers at Vikings: [REDACTED]

If Matt LaFleur and the Packers didn’t care about losing their fourth in a row going into the playoffs, why should I care about their 16-3 loss? Ugly game. Had to call timeout and kick a field goal to avoid a shutout. I’ll just say “Nine” doesn’t seem capable of staying healthy, so that’s a problem for Minnesota going forward.

Next week: Playoffs? You kidding me? I’m somehow going to do the final QB rankings of 2025 for Monday, get Fraud Alert Rating for the season by Tuesday, full wild card previews for Wednesday/Thursday, and betting picks by Friday.

NFL 2025 Week 18 Predictions: For All the Marbles Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ve reached the final weekend of the NFL 2025 regular season, and it’s hard to remember a crazier season than this with so many new contenders and so many favorites falling off. Who would ever have believed that Philip Rivers (4) would throw more touchdowns in December than Patrick Mahomes (0 in 2 games) in 2025?

I just took a sneak peak at where my preseason predictions stand, and while I was expecting the absolute worst, it looks like they’ll either be slightly better than 2024, and no worse than 2020 or 2022. But I’ll post those results on Monday morning, and I plan on doing a pretty full week of content to wrap up 2025’s regular season and get going on playoff coverage for what should be one of the hardest postseasons to predict.

Is there any “gimme” game in this playoffs besides maybe the No. 5 seed in the NFC going to the NFC South winner? I don’t think so. Anyone can beat anyone here, and we’ve even seen the Rams already lose in Carolina, so even that 5-4 matchup is possibly up for grabs.

But we have three division title games (well, one is a quasi-division title game) this weekend, and we could see the final NFL games ever involving the likes of Travis Kelce, Pete Carroll, and Aaron Rodgers. Maybe the last game John Harbaugh ever coaches for the Ravens too, the 40th edition of Harbaugh vs. Tomlin.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 18: The Christmas Where Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen Wish They Were Gifted the Jets’ Defense
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 18

My picks have a parlay for the Ravens-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, and two NFC South games. I also have picks for Myles Garrett, Travis Kelce, and a parlay of big winners.

NFL Week 18 Predictions

Hoping to finish strong, but it’s always a tough week when you don’t know how motivated the eliminated teams will be, or how many snaps starters will get for the playoff teams.

2025 NFL Week 18 Picks

CAR-TB and NO-ATL: Give me that NFC South special. The Bucs win on Saturday but still get eliminated on Sunday after Atlanta beats the Saints without Chris Olave (pulmonary embolism; get well soon, brother). 3-way tie at 8-9 goes to Carolina, which will hopefully be the impetus for the NFL to stop giving division winners a home playoff game automatically.

SEA-SF: It’s the biggest one and I respect Seattle being probably the best team in the league this year with all three losses coming in the final minute. But I am going with the 49ers at home as I think that offense is peaking and the Seahawks have a QB in Darnold who has to prove he won’t implode in these moments. I still don’t trust him.

CLE-CIN: Myles Garrett gets his sack record, Bengals still win by 8+. If I was Joe Burrow, I’d lay down to give Garrett the cheapest sack possible for the record. See if he takes the bait. Cause it’s Burrow, you know there will probably be other opportunities later in the game, but that’s what I would do to get it out of the way.

DAL-NYG: *Yawn* Dak beats Giants again to get Cowboys to 8-8-1.

GB-MIN: Are we really about to see Clayton Tune against a Flores defense? Yikes, what an awful way to lose the under 8.5 wins bet on the 2025 Vikings.

IND-HOU: Tempted to take Indy ATS, but I think Houston can win a 20-6 type of snoozer to end the season for the Colts with Riley Leonard at QB.

TEN-JAX: I have Jags winning the AFC South here, but I think Cam Ward can end his rookie season on a high note by at least covering the big spread.

KC-LV: Kenny Pickett returns? Chiefs should win but would it really be beneficial to the draft? Just get Travis Kelce his 10 yards quickly and be done with it.

DET-CHI: What a turnaround for these teams since Week 2. I think the Bears cover at home to get that No. 2 seed and drop Detroit to a losing record without Ben Johnson this year.

LAC-DEN: Trey Lance gets a start, and I know Keenan Allen needs 6 catches for a nice incentive. But I’m going to trust Harbaugh enough to not get embarrassed and cover the spread here. Denver wins the No. 1 seed though.

MIA-NE: This might have been interesting in Miami where the Patriots tend to struggle, but it’s at home in January, so they’ll beat up on a bad Miami team here.

WAS-PHI: Yes, the Eagles can cover without Jalen Hurts against a poor defense and backup QB.

ARI-LAR: I find it hard to believe that Sean McVay will really play starters even if he’s locked into the No. 6 seed. But the Cardinals are 50/50 to get completely blown out, so I’ll take his word on it and take the Rams to cover.

NYJ-BUF: We’ll see if Josh Allen dips after the first snap to keep his streak alive, but I think he should at least do the old Peyton Manning strategy in Indy where you play a drive or two before getting out of there. Plus, it’s the Jets, so he very well could watch James Cook pile up some rushing yards to win the rushing title, then set up a tush push TD to keep Allen’s streak of 40-TD seasons alive.

BAL-PIT: I wrote a detailed preview with a +1200 SGP in the picks piece above, but I honestly think the Metcalf suspension is going to doom them in the end. That decision to give the most WR-centric passer ever one good wideout all season, and then for him to be suspended while they face AFC North defenses in bad weather is just more bad luck for Rodgers, who I honestly think should come back in 2026 if the Steelers can find a way to get him another WR.

But I picked Ravens over Packers in the Super Bowl before this absurd season started, and I’m not backing down now on the Baltimore side of things. A run is still possible in this AFC but let’s see how healthy Lamar looks.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

That was a very long Week 17 slate in the NFL that started with Josh Johnson on Christmas afternoon and ended with a classic shootout between the Bears and 49ers. It sets up three division title games in Week 18 in prime time and little of substance on Sunday afternoon.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, so we still haven’t had a week with 10 chances since Week 4. That has me a little worried about Atlanta’s ability to keep it close with the Rams on Monday night, but we’ll see as I still think that one has upset potential.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at 49ers: Game of the Day

This 42-38 game summed up in one graphic:

The crazy part is the Bears didn’t have their best wideout in Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore wasn’t 100%, and the two rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) dominated with 232 yards and 2 TDs). The 49ers didn’t have George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall wasn’t 100%, and they still lit it up too with Brock Purdy accounting for 5 total touchdowns (10 in prime time since Monday night) and 303 passing yards.

Not a bad shootout for a game that started with a pick-six. But I think it’s a game where the 49ers showed they could run the ball very well against a bad run defense as CMC had 140 rushing yards. Purdy played excellent, and it’s past time we act like he always needs George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to do this, because none of those three were available to him on Sunday night. Left tackle Trent Williams also left on the opening drive.

But I also think you have to give Caleb Williams and the Bears credit for hanging in there blow for blow when the 49ers are on a heater like this. It came down to the final snap, and the Bears were that close to extending their record to a seventh win this season when trailing in the final 2:00.

If we somehow got this as a playoff rematch, I think that’d be great. But definitely a strong night for the offensive minds of Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. Now, the 49ers just have to beat Seattle (easier said than done) on Saturday night and they’ll be the No. 1 seed again.

My only warning would be that you see what it might look like without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, though there is some hope Warner could return during the playoffs. But if Purdy is playing like this, maybe this can finally be San Francisco’s year.

Eagles at Bills: Familiar Trends

Throw in a lot of cold rain to make it even easier on these two strong pass defenses, and Sunday’s 13-12 final more or less played up to the season trends for the Eagles and Bills:

  • The Eagles started strong, taking a 13-0 lead into the locker room with Dallas Goedert adding another easy 1-yard touchdown to his season total.
  • Jalen Hurts then promptly went 0-for-7 passing in the second half with DeVonta Smith only coming close on a overturned catch one time.
  • Saquon Barkley was held to 68 yards on 19 carries, so his disappointing season continued more than the horrid Buffalo run defense did, but it helped that the Eagles weren’t completing passes.
  • Josh Allen took 5 sacks, including another contender for the worst sack of the year that knocked him out of field goal range as the Bills were shut out for 54 minutes.
  • James Cook was held to 77 total yards, and the Bills are now 0-4 this season when Cook is under 100 yards from scrimmage, averaging 14.8 points per game in those games.

But Philadelphia’s classic second-half no show on offense meant the defense had to hold up, and it almost broke. The Bills finally broke through with some big plays to Brandin Cooks and others (another hook-and-lateral) to get down the field twice, and despite the bad foot, Allen snuck in two touchdown runs in the final 5:11, including a 4th-and-goal from the 1 run with 0:08 left.

The Bills made the controversial decision to go for 2 and the win, and Allen completely whiffed on the throw to an open Shakir in the end zone. Game over; the Patriots win the AFC East. It’s no wonder they like to run the ball down there. That should have been an easy conversion, but the Bills have been missing these 2PC plays all season.

However, I have to defend the decision to go for the win instead of playing for overtime. I think it was absolutely the right call for Sunday’s circumstances:

  • The weather was horrible, which can make an extra point even harder, and it’s not like Buffalo’s kicker has been reliable on those, getting one blocked on the first touchdown. The Eagles have good blockers too.
  • Allen’s foot wasn’t 100% and that limits his effectiveness, so you don’t want to keep putting stress on that for more snaps in overtime.
  • The Bills realistically have to admit the Patriots are likely winning the AFC East with only a home game against Miami left, so it’s not like the division title or a No. 1 seed is really on the line here.

If this game was earlier in the season when you have less clarity about the playoff standings, I think you take them to overtime as your defense was playing outstanding and you’re at home. If the weather was better, I think you play on into overtime. If Allen was 100% healthy in a normal game, I think you go to overtime, which is a place he’s never actually won a game in the NFL yet.

But those were not the circumstances on Sunday in Week 17, so I don’t have an issue with the Bills doing what they did. I just have an issue with Allen badly missing the throw as they finally had a good play dialed up for one of those 2PCs.

The Eagles (11-5) still have an outside shot of the No. 2 seed over Chicago. The Bills (11-5) drop from No. 5 to No. 7, and with the Jets only left on the schedule, I think they’ll go to 12-5, the Texans beat the Colts to get to 12-5 and the No. 5 seed by virtue of head-to-head win, and the Chargers lose at Denver to fall to No. 7 seed at 11-6.

I had Buffalo lined up for No. 5 for a while, but seeing as how that now could be Derrick Henry and the Ravens in Baltimore, I’m not sure they want any part of that matchup in two weeks, so it’s possible that bad throw was strategic by Allen.

Then again, going to No. 6 and probably having to go to Jacksonville, a team playing as well as anyone, may not be a great start either for this team. But that’s where I see things trending for Buffalo.

Steelers at Browns: The Tomlin Special (The Last One?)

Once the Ravens beat the Packers on Saturday night, you could see the “Tomlin Special” coming from a mile away.

The Steelers were going to lose to a 3-12 Cleveland team to set up a winner-take-all game on SNF against the Ravens for the AFC North. And they’ll have to do it without D.K. Metcalf (suspended) and Darnell Washington (broke his arm on Sunday). Maybe without Calvin Austin too, or the three players who had 67% of Rodgers’ passing yards in Baltimore earlier this season.

I knew the Ravens being +800 value the other day to win the AFC North was too good to pass up. That’s not to say it’s a sure thing, because the Ravens have a pretty bad history of playing well in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers played Sunday with no real energy or care to want to wrap things up with a great opportunity against a bad team.

Instead, they gave up 10 early points to Shedeur Sanders before picking him off twice later. But even with nine possessions in a 4-to-7 point game the rest of the way, the Steelers never found the end zone even once. They pissed away drives with penalties, a pathetic 4th-and-1 deep pass to Scotty Miller, a Rodgers slide short of the sticks on third down, a bad sack to make a field goal too long, and forcing the ball repeatedly to washed-up wide receivers against a No. 1 pass defense with good corners playing man coverage.

And yes, the Steelers absolutely were too focused on Myles Garrett breaking the sack record. Garrett himself admitted it, and while you might expect him to say that given he was shutout by a makeshift offensive line, anyone who says this didn’t have a big negative impact on the game for Pittsburgh didn’t watch the game.

You could see it in the way they called plays at times, like not calling a single pass in a 13-9 game with 7:03 left and the ball at midfield. Three-and-out on runs. You could see it in the way Rodgers was letting go of the ball extra fast (usually well under 2.6 seconds), sometimes just throwing the ball away before he even dares left Garrett get a whiff of him.

That hampered the offense all day, and it’s a silly thing to worry about when Garrett gets to play Joe Burrow next week. The record is going to fall, but Rodgers sure looked like he’d be damned to be Brett Favre and get caught in a highlight reel forever for going down on the record-breaking sack.

Instead, he reverted to his factory settings by forcing outside throws to wide receivers instead of using the only players that are actually any good in this offense, the tight ends and running backs. Rodgers was 8-of-21 for 60 yards on passes to MVS, Scotty Miller, and Adam Thielen. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth had the big plays on the final drive, but he only finished with 63 yards on 3-of-5 passing.

Feed him more, except Rodgers just doesn’t like tight ends and will rather throw to washed-up wideouts he has no real chemistry with against maybe the worst defense to try that against this year.

Just buffoonery from start to finish as the Steelers finished with 6 points on 11 drives. Mike Tomlin is now 0-7 at Cleveland without Ben Roethlisberger, who was 12-2-1 at Cleveland.

I had a bad feeling the Metcalf suspension would lead to something like this, but I really didn’t think Rodgers would go with low-risk passes to MVS in the end zone (against Denzel Ward) on three straight passes with the game on the line. Metcalf would have been a target there. Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith should have been a target there. MVS stinks.

But Rodgers’ loyalty to “his guys” at wideout came back to bite them. A bad gameplan hurt them. Worrying too much about Garrett, who didn’t even generate that much pressure, hurt them.

Frankly, this team doesn’t deserve the postseason. They got their ninth win last week, and at this rate, I’ll be surprised if they get another this season.

Jaguars at Colts: Farewell Philip (Again?)

Hats off to the Jaguars for getting to 12-4 with a sweep of the Colts this month. This was a good back-and-forth game with Trevor Lawrence showing off his legs on two touchdown runs, and the pass defense held up against Philip Rivers for the most part (147 yards, 1 touchdown).

Rivers’ lone pick came in the fourth quarter of a tied game (had to play that tune one more time), and that actually led to Jacksonville’s game-winning field goal drive, which consisted of losing 3 yards after a stuffed Travis Etienne run and two incompletions by Lawrence. Yikes.

Rivers got the ball back in a 23-17 game with 18 seconds left, but instead of seeing him throw one last pick in a one-score game to perhaps end his career for good, a delay of game penalty on the defense moved the ball to the Jacksonville 48. Riley Leonard came off the bench with the stronger, younger arm to throw the Hail Mary, and that too was intercepted to end the game.

Rivers has no regrets about the comeback attempt even though the Colts were eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday with Houston’s win. He’ll go down as an all-time competitor and one of the only people crazy enough to try this after five years away from the game.

If this is the end of the road, he’ll now finish 36-84 (.300) at game-winning drive opportunities and 30-79 (.275) at comeback opportunities down one score.

Seahawks at Panthers: NFC South Shame Pt. 1

It’s not like I expected the Panthers to beat the Seahawks, but damn, have some pride at home. The Panthers were 5-1 ATS as a home underdog this year, but the best they could do in this one was make it 17-10 in the fourth quarter after a Bryce Young touchdown run.

It’s a good thing he had that run because he finished with 54 passing yards on 24 attempts, or 40 yards on 26 plays if you add his sacks.

But a huge facemask penalty got the Seahawks out of a 3rd-and-21 situation, and they punched in another score to go up 20-10. Young took consecutive sacks before throwing a 5-yard pass on 4th-and-17, leading to a 25-yard touchdown drive by the Seahawks to ice it at 27-10.

All three of Seattle’s touchdown drives started inside the Carolina 30 in the second half, taking advantage of Carolina’s mistakes on offense. This game was winnable despite the final score, but it really looks like no one wants to take the NFC South this year.

Their division title game should end in a tie, which would still give it to the Panthers.

Buccaneers at Dolphins: NFC South Shame Pt. 2

This Tampa Bay collapse needs studied. The Dolphins came in ranked No. 26 against the run and the Bucs just couldn’t get anything going on the ground. It doesn’t help when Tristan Wirfs was inactive at tackle. But Baker Mayfield probably has the best 4-WR group in the NFL, and yet they were stuck on 10 points with him throwing two picks deep into this one before a last-minute Mike Evans touchdown led to a failed onside kick in a 20-17 loss.

Quinn Ewers had a couple of touchdown passes to lesser-known Miami targets for the rookie’s first win. The running game was solid. Miami will likely finish 7-10, which sounds like the typical Miami season in the 21st century.

Giants at Raiders: The Toilet Bowl

Both teams had lost nine in a row, but the Raiders would have been dumb to win this game and hand the Giants the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Raiders definitely need it more as they have a quarterback need the Giants don’t with Jaxson Dart rushing for two more scores in this 34-10 rout as Geno Smith took another beating behind his line.

The No. 1 pick isn’t locked up for the Raiders yet, and the Chiefs would probably be wise to not let them secure it next week either. Then again, it’s not like there looks to be a real QB prize in the 2026 draft.

Cardinals at Bengals: Ho-Hum

Go figure, it took Jacoby Brissett deep into garbage time (trailed by 30 points at the two-minute warning) to finally break 200 yards passing and throw his second touchdown of the day against the Bengals in a 37-14 loss that was never really competitive.

Just glad to say I was right that Ja’Marr Chase and Trey McBride finding the end zone were the only picks you needed from this otherwise fruitless endeavor between losing teams.

Patriots at Jets: Seriously, Just End the Season

The Patriots scored six straight touchdowns to start their 42-10 rout of the Jets, another tip in the cap for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has been behind some of those all-time drubbings in NFL history.

Speaking of history, the 2025 Jets have done it. In 16 games, they’ve let quarterbacks throw 32 touchdowns and 0 interceptions after a 5-piece from Drake Maye on Sunday. That’s two weeks after Trevor Lawrence had six total touchdowns on this defense.

I know Aaron Glenn is going to get excuses that they traded two of his best defenders, but this shit was rotten from Week 1 and has only gotten worse. I wouldn’t criticize the Jets if they made him a one-and-done coach, but I doubt that will happen no matter how brutal this 3-win season has gone.

Saints at Titans: Ending 2025 on a High Note

I know people don’t care about these teams this season, but I think it was a very good showing for both Tyler Shough and Cam Ward, and a game that should have their fans excited about what can happen in 2026 with more seasoning from Shough and better coaching/talent around Ward.

But Shough got the best of this matchup as he added another 300-yard passing game and comeback win to his resume. In such a down year for rookies, I’m very serious about voting him for OROY. Just finish strong next week.

Texans at Chargers: Houston Outlasts Them

Going back to Saturday quickly, I was most excited about this game and I think it delivered a playoff atmosphere with a tough, physical grind after some early explosives from Houston’s offense made it 14-0 in the blink of an eye.

But I thought Justin Herbert’s teammates let him down again with the tipped pick in the red zone, and Dicker the Kicker turned into Nate Kaeding in a big game. This guy is supposed to be perfect from inside 40 yards, yet he missed one from 40 and an extra point, costing the Chargers 4 points in a game they lost by, yep, 4 points. And don’t act like I haven’t forgotten about the missed field goal in the Jacksonville playoff loss. I see what this kicker is up to. Can’t trust him.

But the Texans held on for the second week in a row by getting a huge defensive penalty to help them run out the clock. I’m not sure Chargers fans can complain much about that illegal contact that wiped out a third-down sack of Stroud. The Chargers also had two defensive penalties wipe out huge sacks on Herbert on their previous drive to score a touchdown.

This game is a pretty good sign that the Texans are more dangerous than the Chargers in the playoffs because of their defense and their offensive line doesn’t have turnstiles at offensive tackle. But I also think it helped  expose that the Houston offense is still likely to come up short before a Super Bowl appearance to keep this team out of the big game.

Crazy stat: Houston has never been a wild card team. All eight playoff appearances for the Texans have come as the AFC South winner, so we’ll see how that shakes out if Jacksonville wraps this division up on Sunday.

Ravens at Packers: King Henry Reigns Supreme

For a game with two backup quarterbacks, there were a lot of points and quality drive engineering between the Packers and Ravens on Saturday night. While the Ravens leaned on Derrick Henry, who dominated with 216 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was the Packers who surprisingly couldn’t run at all and leaned on Malik Willis to throw for 288 yards and rush for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sadly, a late injury knocked him out and Clayton Tune was intercepted on a tipped ball.

But I think it’s clear that Matt LaFleur is going to help Willis get paid a ton of money from a team to be their starter in 2026 or 2027, a miraculous coaching job with a player who couldn’t throw for 100 yards in any of his starts as a rookie on the 2022 Titans. Maybe even his brother Mike LaFleur, the Rams offensive coordinator, will be hired by a team to make Willis work out as well as his brother has.

Good luck with that, but it was an impressive game from him on Saturday night. They didn’t lose this game because Jordan Love (concussion) was out. They lost because their defense, missing Micah Parsons, was pathetic, a familiar tune in Green Bay in big games.

The Packers are now 0-3 this year when they don’t punt in a game, which has never been done before in a season. The rest of the NFL is 10-0 this year. Green Bay is just the 10th team since 1950 to lose a game by at least 17 points without punting.

Next week: I get to look back at how bad my predictions were for this crazy season. We get the sacrificial lamb game first on Saturday to determine the No. 4 seed in the NFC. We get the No. 1 seed game at night, then it’s a pretty bland Sunday afternoon slate leading up to Ravens vs. Steelers for the AFC North.

NFL 2025 Week 17 Predictions: The End of Harbaugh-Lamar Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

While Netflix is traditionally shady about releasing the true ratings of its programming, the NFL probably saw a ratings decline over last Christmas because all three games on Thursday featured a third-string quarterback, and the only team that really had playoff hopes was Denver, who are not a big draw on the national stage at this point.

But in true NFL fashion, the underdogs were 3-0 ATS and the Lions even ended their season in embarrassing fashion by losing 23-10 to the Vikings, who started Max Brosmer at quarterback and finished with 3 net passing yards. That’s the fewest net passing yards in a win since the 2006 Texans were below zero.

That’ll end the fifth year together for Jared Goff and Dan Campbell, and that disappointing result combined with another potentially disastrous ending this weekend for Baltimore had me thinking about the Five-Year Rule again.

This is something I first wrote for FiveThirtyEight in 2017 about how no team has won its first championship after starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.

It’s continued every year since, and you can actually go back to 1950 and it still stands true for all NFL championship-winning duos. Two of the biggest tests to this rule, which I’ve been highlighting for years now in their season previews, are the Bills (Sean McDermott-Josh Allen) and Ravens (John Harbaugh-Lamar Jackson).

They are both in Year 8 together since those quarterbacks were drafted in 2018, and neither has still reached a Super Bowl, let alone won one. Both can blame Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for hogging up that spot so often as well as going 5-0 in the playoffs against their teams.

But the Chiefs are gone this year. That paves the way for Buffalo and Baltimore, but things have literally never been the same for the Ravens, my preseason SB pick, since Derrick Henry fumbled on opening night in Buffalo and the Ravens blew that 15-point lead in the fourth quarter.

The Ravens have been 1-5, Lamar Jackson was knocked out with that hamstring injury, they were still 6-5 after he struggled upon return, and now they’re 7-8 and facing a must-win game at Green Bay on Saturday night to prevent the Steelers from locking up the AFC North before even having to take the field in Week 17.

Yet, season on the line, and it’s looking like the final meaningful game of the Lamar Jackson-John Harbaugh era won’t even have Jackson on the field after he left last week’s loss against the Patriots with a back injury.

You can talk about Jackson trade rumors, but the fact is Harbaugh is always the one likely to get the boot here after a ton of disappointment in the playoffs since his only ring in 2012. The team’s lack of complementary football this year just might be the final nail in the coffin for Harbaugh after 18 years on the job.

The Five-Year Rule will persist after claiming one of its strongest challengers. We’ll see if it can outlast the pairing of Allen and McDermott too, but if there’s anything clear about this 2025 season, it’s that nothing is a given anymore.

The Broncos are a good bet to get the No. 1 seed and they had to stop Kansas City’s third-string quarterback on a final drive. The Rams are Super Bowl favorites despite already blowing four games, including two games as a 8+ point favorite. They could do it a third time in Atlanta on Monday night, a game that could decide Matthew Stafford’s MVP outcome.

It’s a good thing Stafford and McVay got it done right away in 2021, or else I’d be talking about the Five-Year Rule for them and how this is do or die time for this pairing.

This Week’s Articles

(I’ll add the NFL picks later when posted)

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 17: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye Do Not Disappoint in Prime-Time MVP Race

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I even said on Twitter that going chalk on Christmas was a bad idea because they’re all big spreads in divisional rematches. Yet I still did it because I hated the slate on paper that much, and yep, the results speak for themselves.

HOU-LAC: My most anticipated game this weekend because it should feel like a playoff game even if that laxed SoFi crowd wouldn’t make it sound like one. But I think it has big implications as AFC West is still in play for the Chargers, and the Texans are rolling with 7 straight wins. I’m going to trust that defense against Herbert’s OL to get it done too.

BAL-GB: Sounds like Jordan Love (concussion) is good to go against Tyler Huntley, so while the Packers are a bad spread bet as a favorite this year, I think they take care of the Ravens here as I just trust LaFleur more than Harbaugh right now.

SEA-CAR: Panthers are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. If the Titans can lose a 30-24 game to these Seahawks, I have to believe Carolina can keep it close, if not add another shocking upset to their list.

ARI-CIN: Your classic big Jacoby Brissett stat line + failed 4QC/GWD as Burrow piles up numbers in a meaningless game.

TB-MIA: Bucs are in a free-fall, but I’m just going to trust them to pick it up here.

JAX-IND: Should be a good one with points, but I think the Colts are playing awful defense and Trevor Lawrence is cooking for maybe the first time ever in his career.

NE-NYJ: Somehow, the Jets are even worse than they were the last time these teams met.

NO-TEN: Call me crazy but I think the KC win will energize this Tennessee team to go on a little run to end this season even if Shough’s been a better rookie QB than Ward. He does have more to work with, including a coach with a brain.

PIT-CLE: I think this game will be ugly as hell with almost no passes from the Steelers to deny Myles Garrett breaking the sack record against them. But I think they’ll force Shedeur into mistakes that set up scores.

NYG-LV: The Giants have Dart and the Raiders need that No .1 pick more. I’d advise the Raiders to lose this Tank Bowl and secure the No. 1 pick.

PHI-BUF: Both teams would love to run more than pass in this matchup, but if they are forced to pass, I’m still trusting Allen at home more than Hurts on the road.

CHI-SF: 49ers haven’t punted since November and it sounds like George Kittle is playing. 49ers can win out and not have to leave Levi’s all the way through Super Bowl 60. Give me the hot team here over the team that relies on turnovers and insane comebacks.

LAR-ATL: Stafford’s MVP case is sealed or destroyed here. I feel bad for him cause this spread really should not be that high given the way the Rams are struggling on defense, the Davante injury, the Atlanta pass rush, and it’s not hard to see Kirk Cousins dealing with his full weapons and pulling this one out. I’m not sure Stafford can survive a fifth loss and win MVP. His stats aren’t as good or consistent as 2016 Matt Ryan’s were. Just have to hope the Falcons do some Falconing and the Rams prevail.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I cannot recall an NFL season that felt this wide open as it does in 2025. Big leads don’t feel safe no matter who you’re playing, and even for the teams looking at the wild card paths to the Super Bowl, there’s no juggernaut or historic team out there that I’ll say they can’t beat on the road in January.

That last part is the important one. In the past years I’ve covered, you always had some team with Brady, Manning, or Mahomes that you just wouldn’t expect to ever lose to a low seed like the 2016 Texans (Brock Osweiler year), 2020 Browns (no defense), or when the 2023 Steelers snuck in with Mason Rudolph.

But not this year.

  • Not when you can watch the Seahawks’ version of Sam Darnold overcome his kryptonite (Rams) with a 16-point comeback win on Thursday night in what I called the Game of the Year this weekend. He has a great defense backing him up.
  • Not when the Bears can wipe out a 10-point deficit in the last 5:00 to beat Green Bay in overtime, and we’ve already seen them run over the Eagles in Philly.
  • Not when the Eagles are playing sound defense, the running game is starting to pick things up, and you can at least argue they’ve been to the Super Bowl twice since 2022 and big-game experience matters.
  • Not when the Panthers have already upset the Packers, Rams, Buccaneers, etc. and should have won in Philadelphia last year (Xavier Legette drop) as Bryce Young turns into Steve Young in big moments.
  • Not when the Rams should probably be 15-0 if not for blowing every loss in inexplicable fashion.
  • Not when the 49ers have a path to the No. 1 seed that includes sweeping Darnold in Week 18 (a la how Detroit did last year) and have the Super Bowl at home this year.
  • Not when the Packers – okay, this one is probably a stretch without Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft. But if Jordan Love can return on Saturday…

But we’re used to seeing the NFC offer new contenders. What about the AFC that’s been dominated by quarterback stability? Well, that’s simply not the case this year as Sunday proved again:

  • The Broncos (12-3) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in impressive fashion by Jacksonville, the first bad game Denver’s played all year. Still in line for the No. 1 seed though.
  • The Patriots (12-3) are right on Denver’s heels and that big comeback win in Baltimore should do wonders for Drake Maye’s confidence and development in games like this.
  • The Jaguars (11-4) have been red hot since the bye week, they can score 25+ every week, and they get turnovers on defense. What’s really stopping Trevor Lawrence from going on an Eli/Flacco/Foles type of run?
  • The Steelers (9-6) always flop in the postseason, but I think this season has been different in several areas we’ll get into the next few weeks. If they do have to play the Bills in the wild card and can find a way past that one, they have dark horse potential with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball at the right moment.
  • The Chargers (11-4) still have a shot to win the AFC West by beating Houston and Denver, and if they can do that behind Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, who can’t they beat in this AFC?
  • The Bills (11-4) may be terrible at stopping the run, but they stop the pass, they can run the ball too, they put up points, and they have big-game experience and have done well against basically every team but the Chiefs (not in the picture this year) over the years.
  • The Texans (10-5) struggling with the Raiders may give you pause, but they have the best defense in the NFL this year and could be a problem for anyone they face with a playoff win in each of the last two seasons.

There are usually several playoff teams you can just write off for having a pathetic defense or rookie/backup quarterback. But that’s not going to be the case this year, and I don’t think there’s any “chalk” matchup here. I could be sold on 49ers vs. Texans in Super Bowl 60 just as easily I could be told Eagles vs. Bills in Week 17 is a Super Bowl preview, or even Patriots vs. Rams for the third time this century

This must be that “parity” people speak of but never really get like this. I’m not sure if this will lead to me doing more research than usual in January, always my busiest month of the year, or if I’ll be inclined to do less and just sit back and let this madness unfold since so many of these teams don’t have a track record to rely on.

All I know is just about every time someone tries to anoint a team as the one to beat this year, they usually show you with the quickness that they are very beatable. Even if they’re up double digits late in the game.

But Week 16 was a memorable one with all three of the games with late lead changes coming in the prime-time slots. Overall, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity, and we’ll see if Colts-49ers can give us 10 in a week for the first time since Week 4.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Ravens: Sunday’s Best

It was many weeks ago when I called my shot that Drake Maye would have his first 300-yard passing game in the NFL against Baltimore in Week 16. Then as the game was approaching this week, I had the Drake Maye MVP Parlay that hit with Stafford’s loss against Seattle starting it on Thursday, and I wrote how the Ravens have a history of letting young passers set career highs in passing yards against them recently.

Then right before the game, I made my pick:

This wasn’t an endorsement of Maye as much as it was I know how John Harbaugh’s Ravens play, and I know you can’t trust them in games like this, especially in 2025. Sure enough, you could see early on that Maye had big plays coming against this secondary. He just had to control his turnovers as he turned it over twice in scoring range early on.

But the Ravens lost Lamar Jackson in the first half to a back injury, putting Tyler Huntley under the microscope for the rest of the night in an important game. He did help lead two touchdown drives to give the Ravens a 24-13 lead with 12:50 left, but we’ve seen this movie before with Baltimore.

Maye answered with a great 37-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Williams to get over 300 yards, then the Ravens ignored using Derrick Henry on the ensuing drive and punted. Maye had a deep ball that should have been caught by Boutte, but he dropped it on the ground after he was interfered with on the play, and I can’t believe there wasn’t a flag there. Go figure, I lost a good parlay on this game because he didn’t get yards there.

That was a first-down play that led to some critical snaps later. On third down, Maye’s pass was nearly intercepted by Nate Wiggins, but then Maye threaded the needle on 4th-and-2 to Stefon Diggs for a big 21-yard completion. The defense doesn’t make you pay on a pick and you come back and finish the game-winning drive. That sounds very Brady-esque by Maye.

Two plays later, Rhamondre Stevenson finished the drive with a 21-yard touchdown run with 2:07 left. Maye’s defense needed to complete the comeback, and it did its job by forcing Zay Flowers to fumble two plays into the ensuing drive. Maye had a 16-yard keeper run to ice his first 4QC/GWD in the NFL, an 11-point comeback in the fourth, and that career-high line of 380 passing yards. That’s a memorable first comeback.

At 12-3, the Patriots can still think about 14-3 and a potential No. 1 seed if Denver loses again. I’m not convinced this game should make Maye the MVP since Baltimore just isn’t Baltimore anymore, but it keeps him firmly in the running with Stafford, who can still slip up in Atlanta next Monday night.

But this win should give Maye and the Patriots a lot of confidence that they can win this type of game where he had 57 of the team’s 70 action plays. That’s MVP quarterback-y stuff.

Steelers at Lions: It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue

This game finished 29-24, hitting the over (52.5), but that’s a miracle when you consider how each half started.

The Steelers took a 3-0 lead after the first quarter, scoring no more than 7 points in the opening quarter for the 67th game in a row including playoffs, the longest streak since WWII. They were able to hold the Lions to no points after facing a 1st-and-goal at the 4 by stopping a Jared Goff pass on 4th-and-3 from the 3, a sign of things to come.

But instead of Detroit taking a 10-3 lead into halftime, Kenneth Gainwell made a Catch of the Year candidate when he was laying down and caught a deep pass, getting up untouched and racing to the end zone to complete a 45-yard game-tying touchdown with 0:02 left in the half.

The Steelers ended up winning the third quarter by a 2-0 score, sacking Goff in the end zone for a safety after Darnell Washington had fumbled in the red zone. Then Jaylen Warren was able to rip off two 45-yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter, the second giving the Steelers a 29-17 lead with 6:41 left.

But the Lions quickly got one touchdown, and similar to the Ireland game where the Steelers nearly blew a 17-point lead in quick fashion, they almost coughed this one up with poor clock management in the four-minute offense. They settled for a 37-yard field goal with 2:09 left, which should have been automatic for Chris Boswell, but he missed it off the right upright. Inexcusable for one of the game’s best.

Now 29-24, it sure looked like the Steelers were going to blow this one by giving up a late touchdown and they didn’t even have any timeouts left to answer. There was a game-saving DPI penalty on 4th-and-2 to keep the game alive, and sure enough, Goff had the Lions on a 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 25 seconds left.

But that’s when it got interesting and heavy on the officials. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 1-yard touchdown, but it was negated for a pick play called on Isaac TeSlaa. It looked like the right call as he was blocking more than 1 yard past the line, but it’s admittedly not something that always gets called. That was huge cause it backed the Lions up to their 11 with little time left, then a false start had them at the 16.

After some Goff incompletions, it came down to 4th-and-goal from the 9. A short pass to St. Brown was tackled quickly, but he was allowed to lateral the ball back to Goff, who dove into the end zone for what Lions fans thought was a walk-off touchdown in a 30-29 final.

After some record-long discussions about the play, it was determined to be offensive pass interference on Brown for pushing off on Jalen Ramsey, and that ends the game there. No replay of the down for an offensive penalty, and Goff’s touchdown dive simply doesn’t count. Game over, and when the ref said game over, I still wasn’t 100% sure what the final score was supposed to be.

But it looks like they got the calls right, and the Steelers prevailed 29-24, clinching their record 22nd-straight season with a non-losing record, moving past the 1965-85 Cowboys for good. They also move a step closer to winning the AFC North for the first time since 2020.

Meanwhile, Detroit has gone from 15-2 to 8-7 this year and needs to win out while the Packers need to lose out just for the Lions to return as a No. 7 seed. Crazy year for an offense that came into this one leading the league in scoring and having the fewest turnovers (8) of any offense despite losing coordinator Ben Johnson to the No. 1 Bears in the NFC North.

But even in this game, you could see some cracks in Dan Campbell’s offense as they’re missing Sam LaPorta, a tight end who could have been their target on those failed drives early and late in the game. They also just don’t have the line anymore to dominate on the ground. The running backs had 11 carries for 16 yards, which is crazy work against a Pittsburgh run defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Ravens and Bills recently. Did the return of rookie Derrick Harmon cause that big of a shift in run defense success? That’s hard to say.

This is also why these Steelers might actually be a little different this year with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball right now, and the defense has rose to the occasion a few times in a game like this and when they turned the Colts (6) and Patriots (5) over 11 times combined in upset wins.

It doesn’t feel like Tomlin is ever leaving Pittsburgh until he wants to leave, but the Steelers have won 3-0 since “Fire Tomlin!” chants rained down at home against Buffalo. That could end up being the 5-4 rematch on wild card weekend too with Tomlin getting a chance to redeem himself and win his first playoff game since the 2016 season.

Sure, beating Buffalo in the wild card sounds crazy, but when has this 2025 NFL season ever made sense?

Granted, a long suspension for D.K. Metcalf after he punched at a fan in the crowd could be a huge setback here as Rodgers’ only reliable wideout. I’m not sure what the precedent is there, but I could see a 1-game suspension for that. I don’t think it should be more since he didn’t do more than the one punch/slap attempt. He didn’t go full Ron Artest in Detroit (Malice at the Palace). But that’ll be a story to keep an eye on this week as the Steelers need Metcalf for the playoff push.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Does Todd Bowles Survive This?

Man, if not for the Cardinals, the Buccaneers would be winless since Week 9’s bye week. That’s still pretty bad for a team that was 5-1 and has only gotten healthier at receiver and running back. But Baker Mayfield needed a big 40-yard pass to Emeka Egbuka just to break 100 passing yards late in the fourth quarter.

Then down 23-20 late, he was not on the same page with Mike Evans, who cut in while Baker threw the out, and it ended up as a game-ending interception that gives the Panthers the NFC South lead with two weeks to go. The Bucs are just 7-8 now.

I’m just waiting for something big to come out of this decline like finding out Mayfield tore something against the 49ers and tried to play injured, or something indecent has happened with the coaching staff and caused a rift between Todd Bowles and the coordinator. Just something to explain how this team can keep failing to execute after they were money early in the season under pressure.

As for Carolina, it’s a 12th game-winning drive for Bryce Young and his sixth this season. He didn’t have a huge game, but neither did his running game, and he had a timely 34-yard completion on the game-winning field goal drive.

The only positive for Tampa Bay is it still has the Week 18 rematch at home. That’s probably why the Bucs still have -170 odds to win the NFC South. But I don’t know how you can trust a team that’s been so poor for two months now.

Jaguars at Broncos: Mile High Can’t Touch Duuuuuval

I didn’t see a ton of this game on Sunday. But while I liked the Jaguars (+3.5) to cover, I still thought it’d be a very tight game won by Denver. Instead, it’s the first bad game the Broncos have played all year as their 11-game win streak started after losing on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers in September.

The Broncos sacked Trevor Lawrence five times, but once again he excelled with the receivers that have become his main guys under Liam Coen like Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Brian Thomas Jr. only had 18 yards in this game, but that development has been the surprise of the season for the Jaguars, who are now 11-4.

Bo Nix threw for 352 yards, but he lost a fumble late in the third quarter when it was 31-17, and he threw a bad pick on 4th-and-2 when it was 34-20 in the fourth quarter. I saw people clowning Sean Payton, who I am openly not a big fan of over the years, for kicking the 21-yard field goal on 4th-and-3 on the previous drive when it was 34-17.

I think Payton made the right call as I believe you need to keep extending the game and not put your players in “convert this or the game is already over” situations. Keep the pressure on the other team instead, and the Broncos really got what they wanted. They made it a 14-point game, you always  needed the field goal anyway at some point down 17, and now you get the quick three-and-out and the ball back in a 34-20 game with 9:28 left.

But that’s when the fourth-down pick happened, and from there it was basically over even though Denver got it back with 4:14 and the same score. Just no fourth-quarter magic this week as Jacksonville played very well.

If you can win at Denver, you might be able to win anywhere in this season’s AFC. A certain 19-point lead against a certain long-necked backup quarterback is the only thing stopping the Jaguars from having an 8-game winning streak since the bye.

But the Denver streak is over and the AFC West is in jeopardy, let alone that No. 1 seed they seemed to be cruising to.

Bills at Browns: Want to See the Worst Sacks of the Season?

The highly ranked pass defenses of the Browns and Bills did not disappoint in this game. While both defenses would love to face a pass instead of a run, it was compounded by how well the Bills did on the ground early with James Cook ripping off a 44-yard touchdown run on the opening drive.

But with barely over a minute left in the half, Josh Allen took the worst sack of his career that also put his team’s season in jeopardy after he injured his ankle by running backwards from his own 23 to take a 22-yard sack back at his 1 to almost give up a safety. It looked so bad that it almost looked like Garrett paid Allen to do that to set him up for an easy sack, and the scorers agreed as they somehow gave Garrett half a sack on the play.

Garrett didn’t get a full sack, but the Bills only managed a 2-yard field goal drive in the whole second half. Allen was off on some throws, and sometimes his tight ends didn’t complete the catches as the passing game just never got it going.

Shedeur Sanders had some great scrambles in the game, but he also fell victim to bad, deep sacks with the game on the line. He lost 13 yards on a 4th-and-2 sack in a 23-20 game in the fourth quarter. Then after getting the ball back, he took another sack, then got called for intentional grounding to avoid another that brought up 3rd-and-32. After a deep incompletion, Sanders was stuck facing 4th-and-32 from his own 1 with 1:49 left.

There’s no man’s land, and then there’s whatever the fvck that was. With two timeouts left, you almost want to go for it. Three timeouts would make it easier to justify the punt. But Sanders had almost no room to operate in the end zone, and needing 32 yards, you really risk giving up a safety and possession there. You’re almost certain to fail barring a cheap foul, so punting is probably the best thing you could do in that impossible spot.

Allen finally put the game away with an 8-yard pass and QB sneak on 3rd-and-1. But that was a tough win for the Bills, who were a big 10.5-point road favorite. It continues the trend where Allen just doesn’t put up many yards (or points or both) on the road this year, and given the Patriots are close to winning the AFC East, it could be all road games for him to get to the Super Bowl. Not ideal.

But the Bills play great defense in the big spots and they now have seven defensive saves (stops when leading by one score in the fourth quarter) and no blown leads in 2025. Will be interesting to see how they fare against the Eagles next week, a team with more experience and better quarterback play (usually) than the Browns have.

Bengals at Dolphins: Free of Tua, Not Free of a Bad Defense

I give Mike McDaniel and Miami credit for doing the right thing, maybe the overdue thing, and benching Tua Tagovailoa, effectively ending his reign (of terror) with the Dolphins. Quinn Ewers did some solid things early with the running game doing great against a poor Cincinnati defense, but similar to last week in Pittsburgh, the game got completely away from the Dolphins in the third quarter.

Two turnovers and a fourth-down stop set up three short fields for touchdowns by Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who won 45-21. I’m sure that had Tua smirking from the bench, but this team has a better shot of dragging itself out of purgatory by moving on from him. Ewers probably won’t be the long-term answer, but at least they get a look at him in these final games.

Raiders at Texans: Hope for Ashton Jeanty

It didn’t take long for the Houston defense to make its presence felt by intercepting a poor throw from Geno Smith for a pick-six. But Houston’s offense was sputtering, and Ashton Jeanty showed that not even the league’s best defense can stop him from scoring touchdowns of 60 and 51 yards on a pass and a big run late in the fourth quarter.

That had the Texans pressing at home as a 14.5-point favorite to a terrible team that’s been shutout 31-0 twice this year. But I thought Pete Carroll’s team blew it in two spots here:

  • Down 16-14 in the fourth quarter, why are you punting on 4th-and-3 at the Houston 46? Your season is long over. Go for it. You have nothing to lose. The Texans ended up driving 88 yards for a long touchdown drive to make it a 23-14 game. Again, if the worst-case scenario (giving up a TD) happens, you at least would rather it happens quicker on a shorter field than for a long drive like that.
  • Then down 23-21, the Raiders had a great shot to force a 3-and-out and get the ball back right away for a game-winning field goal march, but the defense was penalized for pass interference on 3rd-and-20 from the Houston 7. Brutal. Stroud converted a few more first downs and ran out the final 5:19 to win 23-21.

So, I think this scare throws some cold water on the Houston run to the playoffs. But they are going to be a tough out for anyone they play. And they won’t have to face Jeanty in January. Maybe never if the Raiders don’t get their shit together.

Vikings at Giants: Rough Day at the Office

I knew I liked the under on Jaxson Dart’s passing props against a complex defense like Minnesota, but God damn. Dart finished the game and still finished just 7-of-13 passing for 33 yards with 5 sacks, a deflected pick, and 2 runs for 7 yards. For some reason, it took 17 snaps from scrimmage for the Giants before Dart threw an actual pass in this game.

J.J. McCarthy had a rough afternoon too that wasn’t always his fault as he had a tipped pick. He also got away with a pick-six after Abdul Carter lined up offsides. D’oh.

But McCarthy left another game injured, and Max Brosmer ended up converting a 3rd-and-17 with a great catch by Justin Jefferson to lead to a game-winning field goal in a 16-13 final. Dart had his chance to answer but was sacked on fourth down at midfield.

So, Brosmer has a game-winning drive in the NFL before Dart…

Falcons at Cardinals: More Desert Doom

Props to the Atlanta defense for doing probably the best job of anyone against Jacoby Brissett this year. They held him to 203 yards, had a game-sealing interception, only one touchdown pass, and they held Trey McBride to 27 yards in the 26-19 win.

Not even Atlanta’s historic brand of choking could help Brissett complete the late 10-point comeback. His 7-27 (.206) record at game-winning drive opportunities is the worst among active starters.

Chiefs at Titans: Going Out Sad

People will say the Chiefs (6-9) just tanked after getting eliminated from the playoffs last week, and maybe there’s some truth to that. But aside from adding Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton to this week’s injury report, it’s largely the same roster they’ve been struggling with the last few weeks minus Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

In a 26-9 loss to Tennessee, one of the worst teams this year, the Chiefs averaged just 14.4 yards per drive and scored 9 points on 10 possessions. They may have lost Gardner Minshew to a torn ACL too, setting up Christmas night with Oladokun against the Denver defense. Sounds fun.

But quarterback injuries aside, the Chiefs ran through many of their same issues from the whole season: Bad penalties, bad special teams penalties like lining up offsides on a field goal on 4th-and-1, no running game, poor on third down, etc.

For as bad as the Chiefs were in an infamous 27-3 loss in Tennessee in 2021, a 12-5 team that earned the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs still averaged 37.5 yards per drive that day behind Mahomes. This? This is unwatchable, and it’s hard to believe we’re likely going to see the final games of Travis Kelce’s career play out this way.

Just going out sad.

Chargers at Cowboys: Receivers + Defense

One of my favorite underdog picks this week was the Chargers (+2.5) on the road in Dallas. Why? I knew Justin Herbert would roast that defense, and he sure did with 300 passing yards, no sacks, 3 total touchdowns, and he had a key 34-yard scramble on third down in the fourth quarter when the Chargers led 24-17. That led to a field goal and helped open up a big lead.

The Cowboys had some big strikes early for Dak Prescott’s offense, but after they were already eliminated on Saturday by Philadelphia’s win, they didn’t show up for the rest of the game, getting blanked in another second half in the 34-17 loss.

But it was so fitting to see George Pickens put up big numbers in a game that no longer mattered after he did so little in the previous two losses to the Lions and Vikings. Meanwhile, the Chargers came in with good receivers and a sound defense to take it to the Cowboys. Just better team building and coaching all around for the Chargers.

Jets at Saints: No Picks Again

With two games left against Drake Maye and Josh Allen, we really could see the 2025 Jets get through a full 17-game season without the defense getting a single interception. That’s unfathomable if you watched all the tipped balls getting picked off on Sunday. That kind of fluke play should be easy for the Jets to get on the board at least once in 15 games, but it’s never happened for Aaron Glenn’s unit.

Even though the Saints won 29-6, rookie Tyler Shough threw 49 passes for a season-high 308 yards as Kellen Moore was helping him get those reps in. The Saints are going to be one of the trendiest division winner picks in 2026, and I totally get it.

But the Jets are not a good litmus test for anything.

Eagles at Commanders: The NFC East Streak Is Over

A quick peek back to Saturday’s games, one of the wildest streaks in the 32-game era is over, and there’s a great chance we never see it again. The Eagles have repeated as NFC East champs, the first team to do so since the Eagles in 2001-04.

Every other division’s had at least two repeat winners in that time. The longest active drought is one year, and that might actually only go up to two years if the Seahawks can win the NFC West from the Rams, which they are favored to do now. The whole AFC is on the verge of a new winner this year. The NFC North is likely slipping from Detroit, and the Bucs are losing control of the NFC South. That just leaves Philly as the lone repeat with the Rams still alive too.

It was always the shared quarterback dominance (and quarterback injuries) that allowed this NFC East streak to go on from 2005-2024. One year it’d be Eli Manning, the next it’d be Donovan McNabb, then Tony Romo, or the random year by RG3 or Kirk Cousins.

This was supposed to be Jayden Daniels’ year after reaching the NFC Championship Game with the greatest rookie season ever. But the Commanders limped into Saturday’s game with 4 wins, then lost Marcus Mariota in the third quarter. That led to Josh Johnson playing, and after his pick, the Eagles had no problems piling on some touchdowns to cover the spread and end this division race.

Just another rough year for Washington, but hopefully 2024 won’t be an outlier for Daniels.

Packers at Bears: Shades of the 2014 NFC Championship Game

We had a few island games where a starting quarterback was knocked out with an injury. Jordan Love’s concussion was a brutal hit and his presence was missed, but I thought Malik Willis played well given the Packers were built to throw that night with only two tight ends active and Josh Jacobs wasn’t 100% healthy.

But the Bears really stole this one as they typically do when they’re having their successful years. They were slow to get their field goal in before the two-minute warning in a 10-point game, which was bad, but then Brandon Bostick Romeo Doubs flubbed the onside kick recovery, and the Bears were able to get it back at midfield with plenty of time left.

So, just like two weeks ago, Caleb Williams had the ball in a 7-point game against the Packers. This time, he got the touchdown pass on 4th down, and I would have swore Ben Johnson would go for 2 with 24 seconds left, but the presence of Willis in the game instead of Love likely made him settle for overtime, which isn’t such a bad deal these days.

Then when you win the coin toss, I think kicking first is an easy choice in this matchup. Make Malik Willis drive down the field for a touchdown using three conventional downs, and even that won’t end the game. Good luck to him doing it too, and I also like the prospects of Caleb getting all four downs to work the ball down the field as he can be erratic and needs the extra down.

But it didn’t even come down to that as the Packers, much like the Bears early in the game, botched their fourth-down snap at the Chicago 36 after bypassing on a long field goal on a windy night. That was really the right call, but they just blew the snap.

Then in the other play that looked just like the 2014 NFC Championship Game when the Packers lost in OT at Seattle, Williams uncorked a top throw of the whole season with his 46-yard touchdown to D.J. Moore in good coverage in the end zone to end the game.

That gives the 2025 Bears a record six wins in one season after trailing in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter. Insane stuff, and yeah, it’s probably going to bite them in the ass next year, but that can wait until then. They’re in position for the No. 2 seed, and it’s possible we see round 3 of this matchup in a few weeks.

I’d be more than content with that.

Next week: Serves the NFL right for trying to steal Christmas from the NBA with a bad triple-header where 5/6 teams likely miss the playoffs. But the Saturday lineup is excellent with Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Packers like little playoff games. Just might be Tyler Huntley vs. Malik Willis in that second one. Sunday has upset potential with Seahawks at Panthers, Jags at Colts, and we’ll see if Myles Garrett can break sack record vs. Steelers. Eagles-Bills is the late window choice, and it’s not quite as big of a game as expected. Bears-49ers on SNF is solid even though both teams have clinched a playoff spot already. MNF (Rams-Falcons) is basically to see if Stafford can solidify MVP or falter badly and lose it against that pass rush.

NFL 2025 Week 16 Predictions: Top 5 Games of the Year Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I just remembered a few hours ago that we have two Saturday NFL games for Week 16. One (PHI-WAS) makes me think I don’t mind cleaning the cat’s shit boxes per Saturday routine and missing some plays, and the other (GB-CHI) might be great.

But it’ll take a lot to top what we watched Thursday night when the NFC Game of the Year lived up to the hype and then some. Rams-Seahawks was so good, so shocking, and so impactful that I can’t help but name it the Game of the Year for the 2025 NFL regular season.

Then I saw some people note we’ve had a bunch of GOTY candidates, and I had to come up with a list to see if there’s any truth to that. So, here is my top 5 games of the year for 2025:

  1. Week 16 – Seahawks 38, Rams 37
  2. Week 1 – Bills 41, Ravens 40
  3. Week 3 – Eagles 33, Rams 26
  4. Week 12 – Chiefs 23, Colts 20
  5. Week 4 – Cowboys 40, Packers 40

Probably not good for the Rams that two of the top three games involve them blowing leads of 19 and 16 points in the second half to the defending champs and the leader in their division right now. But the Rams have played entertaining games, and even the first Rams-Seahawks game was close to the top for watching how close Seattle was despite four Darnold interceptions.

We still have some big games left this year, though it’s a huge disappointment that both Commanders-Eagles games are trash and of little relevance. Those were supposed to be huge, but there were just too many injuries for Jayden Daniels and company this season.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 16: Who Imagined We’d See Philip Rivers on Christmas Week and Not Patrick Mahomes?
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 16

The last game of the year for Patrick Mahomes, and my NFL Week 16 picks explain why I’ve been saying for weeks that Drake Maye will have his first 300-yard passing game in Baltimore.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

I’m not sure if I’ve ever had a prediction where I took a team to cover at +1.5 and the opponent to win, but I did it for Rams-Seahawks and I can’t believe Seahawks by 1 worked out in the end. It’s the first game in NFL history where both teams scored a touchdown in overtime and the second team walked it off with a successful 2PC.

But could you imagine the outrage if the total fluke 2PC that tied the game at 30 in the 4Q was the game-winning 2PC in OT? What a disaster that would be, and I would imagine some rules committee discussions this offseason over that one (already saw Sean McVay said there will be).

WAS-PHI: Division games are tricky but I think Eagles get the win and I like DeVonta Smith for props (O56.5, TD).

GB-CHI: It was close at the end last time, and I think with the Micah Parsons injury and homefield switching to the turnover-crazed Bears, they get this one for the big NFC North lead.

LAC-DAL: Cowboys could be eliminated Saturday. But it’s a bigger game either way for the Chargers, and I’m trusting them with the better coach and defense despite the spread.

MIN-NYG: Feels like a game where Dart could get injured, and I think McCarthy will have a good stat line on that defense.

BUF-CLE: Myles Garrett gets his record-tying sack, Bills cover the spread anyway.

NYJ-NO: Tyler Shough is playing well and the Saints cover the laughably large spread after giving up 6 TD to Trevor Lawrence.

TB-CAR: I like the over 45.5 more than trusting either team on the spread, but I think Todd Bowles sees himself getting fired if they blow this division, so give me TB.

CIN-MIA: Hedging on Miami cover, but how funny would it be if the offense lit it up after Tua was benched? Ewers just needs to rely on that running game against the Bengals.

KC-TEN: With the Chiefs facing the 2 worst teams in the NFL this year in their last 3 games (Titans and Raiders), I’m sure fans will be very rational about how they play with Patrick Mahomes on IR. Very rational.

JAX-DEN: Could be a good one and a playoff preview, but I think the Broncos pull it out on a late FG.

ATL-ARI: Maybe a shootout? I’ll trust Captain Kirk in crunch time with his pass rush against Jacoby.

PIT-DET: Expecting solid scoring here, but I think the Lions win a 31-24 game here as they clearly need it more than the Steelers. Expect big things from Amon-Ra St. Brown. 20+ yards in the 1Q for starters. Maybe 2+ catches on the first drive. Exactly the kind of WR who can put up numbers on this defense.

LV-HOU: I tried the Raiders last week and they got crushed 31-0. Screw it, give me Houston and that defense.

NE-BAL: I already said I’m all in on Drake Maye having his first 300-yard passing game, but how about his first 4QC win too? He’s 0-7 in his career. Baltimore is the perfect opponent to do both against, the weather sounds like it’ll be fine, and I can see the Patriots pulling this one out 27-24 late to fill in some gaps in Maye’s resume. Just don’t tell me he’s MVP over Stafford.

SF-IND: I was originally liking the Colts ATS, but -5.5 isn’t as enticing as -6.5. Hard to say though. Philip Rivers should be better in game 2, but I think the 49ers win it after finding out they control their destiny for the No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold in Week 18 only standing in their way really. Could be a repeat of last year when the Lions beat Darnold’s Vikings in prime time to end the regular season and decide the No. 1 seed.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

In a way, I’m glad I don’t have to come up with a fancy title for this like I do the weekly predictions, because this has not been a weekend I’d like to remember. The shootings at Brown University and in Australia set a dark tone for Sunday, and it continued through the night with the reported murders of Rob Reiner and his wife.

I grew up watching Rob’s classic films that should stand the test of time, then I found out around middle school (or early high school) that he was an actor first on All in the Family, so I got to appreciate him as Meathead too. It’s an unthinkable tragedy and not the way you’d ever want to see someone’s story end.

In a sick way, I’m relieved to hear it may have been his son having a mental breakdown who committed the murders instead of some random nutter who did this over a difference of opinion on politics as Reiner was outspoken for years about liberal viewpoints and his disdain for Trump.

In many ways, his career was so admirable as someone who could take a joke, tell a joke, but still be serious when it came time for serious matters, and he had his convictions and beliefs and wasn’t afraid to express them. I think we’re losing a lot of that in today’s society where you have to be Team Blue or Team Red at all times and there’s no straying from the one right viewpoint on so many things.

We lost a genuine person, a creative who helped film some of the most iconic scenes and lines in film history at the peak of his powers:

“You can’t handle the truth!”

“I never had any friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?”

“I’ll have what she’s having.”

It’s all so inconceivable, much like this 2025 NFL season has been.

On Sunday, we saw the Patriots blow a 21-0 lead to Buffalo, the Chiefs’ playoff streak ended at 10 years in Week 15, we lost Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons to torn ACLs, we may have lost Davante Adams for the biggest NFC game this Thursday, and we watched Philip Rivers throw a game-ending interception right before a delayed start time for 60 Minutes in the year 2025 after he nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NFL history.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, and six games with a double-digit comeback win ties the single-week NFL record.

Just one inconceivable thing after another, and I believe I do know what that word means.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Patriots: Game of the Day

While Patriots fans were busy claiming they have a 15-year Super Bowl window with Drake Maye, I recall his win at Buffalo earlier this season only saw him play well in the second half. There’s so much he has to prove in this league before we start putting him in those conversations, and on Sunday, he showed us he’s not ready to take the AFC East over from Buffalo.

It may still happen this year, but it didn’t on Sunday when the Patriots had their chance with a 21-0 lead and a 24-7 lead at halftime. They folded as Maye again only had one good half against Buffalo, and it wasn’t the half that you want it to be in winning time as he is now 0-7 at 4QC opportunities in the NFL.

Sure, the Patriots technically had a go-ahead touchdown drive in the fourth quarter in this game after TreVeyon Henderson hit his second long touchdown run of the game (65 yards) on the only play of the drive. Maye was getting excessive praise for his lead blocking on the score, but that play was largely Henderson’s speed after the line failed him and he got outside to score.

But the Bills answered back with their balanced attack after what was a slow start for Josh Allen in the passing game in the snowy, cold conditions. Keon Coleman’s lack of separation actually paid off on a big third-down DPI penalty that was a legit call, and that helped extend the Buffalo drive for an 11-yard touchdown run by Cook with 6:48 left. Buffalo led 35-31.

Maye had his opportunities to deliver his MVP moment with the first 4QC of his NFL career, something I heard analyst J.J. Watt elude to on the CBS broadcast. People know he doesn’t have one yet, and his only turnover in this game was an arm punt on an earlier 3rd-and-long, but in crunch time, he was just off on some throws to Hunter Henry and Henderson. A couple of ill-timed sacks happened too, and on 4th-and-5 at his own 22, Maye’s final pass was knocked down by Joey Bosa with 1:47 left. The Bills ran out the clock to complete the 21-point comeback.

There was no reverse psychology for me on this one. I liked Buffalo all week, because I think they’re the better team, the more battle-tested team, and they understand how to win big games like this one. The Patriots aren’t there yet, and while they hit some bigger runs than I expected with Henderson, I don’t think they can count on those again in a rematch while the Bills have a reliable running game with Cook behind that line. They also still have the better quarterback until proven otherwise.

Sunday is why I think the Bills should still get to the Super Bowl even if they don’t win the AFC East. They have this experience edge, and they almost have this 2006 Colts type of thing going on where they’re a horrible run defense (truly terrible), but you can kind of expect them to do well against the pass. You saw the 2006 Colts intercept Tom Brady 4 times on SNF in Foxboro. They held up against him in the AFC-CG too that year after getting through Scrambled Brains Trent Green, Old Steve McNair, then Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl.

Now look at the Bills in 2025. They made Aaron Rodgers look bloodied and ancient, and he probably contemplated retirement, and that could even end up being the 5-4 matchup on wild card weekend here. They held Patrick Mahomes under 50% completions for the first time ever, and unlike Houston doing it with drops last week, they did it legitimately.

The Bills just held Maye to 155 passing yards after he had 200+ in every game this season. Who’s going to run wild on them in the playoffs? Probably not Denver, Jacksonville, Chargers, or Houston. Baltimore with Derrick Henry? Sure, but they’d have to make the tournament first, and we’ve seen them fold enough times in the playoffs (especially to Buffalo) to not be too worried about that this January. We’ve watched the Bills destroy Denver in the playoffs last January.

Houston might be the No. 1 team Buffalo has to worry about since that defense has owned Allen the last two years, and C.J. Stroud’s actually had some playoff success.

But with the state of the AFC, this is still setting up very well for Buffalo even if the AFC East and No. 1 seed they were supposed to get this year are both unlikely to happen. But it’s also a huge win because it creates that mental block where the Patriots still are looking up to the Bills in the AFC East.

They had their chance to take over and blew it. We’ll see how they respond from here.

Meanwhile, the 2006 Colts were hardly the best Indy team in the Manning era. But it’s the one that had the right stuff against the right set of opponents in the postseason, and that could be what happens for the Bills in 2025. You’ll just have to spare me the Allen > Manning nonsense since Manning had an all-time great year in 2006, then became the first quarterback ever to beat the top three defenses in the same postseason, and he did get through his nemesis (Patriots) in the AFC-CG.

But this could still be Buffalo’s year. It almost has to be or it never will happen for this team as currently constructed.

Chargers at Chiefs: Life Is Pain, Highness

I’m not trying to write a full eulogy now for the 2025 Chiefs on a somber weekend even though their season is officially dead. They’re 6-8, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, and they’re eliminated from the playoffs after everyone they needed to lose won, and after they blew a 10-point lead to the Chargers at home.

You could point to many things that ended the Chiefs’ playoff streak at 10 years, and most of it are things they have no one but themselves to blame:

  • Rashee Rice getting a 6-game suspension and the front-loaded schedule he missed for it.
  • Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy colliding on the first pass play of the season in Brazil, likely stunting the development and plan for Worthy in Year 2 while Rice was out.
  • Kelce’s butterfingers moments on dropped completions turned interceptions in clutch moments against the Eagles and Texans.
  • Letting Herbert run for a first down on 3rd-and-14 in Brazil.
  • The long list of mistakes in Jacksonville, the night that really started to turn things sour for the Chiefs this year.
  • How they never seemed to seize the moments before and after halftime in their losses.
  • Their typical no-show performance in Buffalo in Week 9 while the Bills treat it like their Super Bowl.
  • Mahomes and the offense not closing out more drives in Denver, their last stand for the AFC West reign in Week 11.
  • The absurd penalties in Dallas on Thanksgiving, and Rice’s drop on third-and-8.
  • All the drive-killing drops and Andy Reid’s 4th-down foolishness against Houston.

Even before you get to Sunday’s execution, this was a Dead Team Walking with 60% of the offensive line filled by backups, and they even lost a fourth tackle in this game, meaning it was double third-string tackles for Mahomes on a bad leg against another strong defensive front that sacked him 5 times.

If it wasn’t showing up in the pass protection, it showed up in the run blocking on Sunday as the Chiefs had 19 carries for 34 yards from the running backs. Mahomes had 15 yards, including a 12-yard scramble touchdown on the opening drive. But after building a 13-3 lead with 0:38 left before halftime, the next time Mahomes touched the ball, it was tied again.

From there, it was your typical Chiefs failure in 2025, another game with limited possessions as the defense couldn’t get off the field on third downs, the offense couldn’t sustain drives, and Rice took another big pop for a third-down drop. Oh, there was even a 5-play stretch where four different defenders were injured.

By the time you get to the fourth quarter, Mahomes threw probably his worst interception of the season on 3rd-and-12 in the red zone to a tightly covered Kareem Hunt, a play that shouldn’t even exist in the playbook for this offense. The play all the more inexplicable when Mahomes made his two best plays of the game right before it to convert twice in a row on third down to Tyquan Thornton with flags making him redo it.

Then on the fateful final drive of the season, of course it started with a holding penalty on the punt return that backed the ball up to the KC 8 with 5:20 left. Those special teams penalties have been automatic all year.

With the ball at the LAC 46 at the two-minute warning, you still thought Mahomes would at least set up the game-tying field goal for overtime, or even get the go-ahead touchdown as he’s done so many times before against the Chargers and other teams.

But that’s when the torn ACL happened on a throwaway outside of the pocket. Non-contact injury too. Gardner Minshew had to enter the game, made a few completions, but in field goal range, the drive again went to shit with a delay of game followed by a forced throw to Kelce that was picked to end the game. To end the season.

To end an era as that was probably the last meaningful target of Kelce’s career, and he was great on the drive too with four catches. But it’s all over after the Chiefs, the masters of situational football for year, threw two picks in game-tying field goal range in the fourth quarter. A befitting ending to a terribly disappointing season.

A season where the Chiefs somehow came up short in every single one-score game except for the Colts’ comeback, and then seemingly every other close game that didn’t even involve them went the right way for teams like the Broncos, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, etc. to create this early elimination.

With a mid-December ACL injury, now you just wonder if Mahomes’ 2026 is compromised in any way, even if it’s just September. That’s walking a thin line on the road to 100% recovery, and while some have done it in less time (Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers had their ACLs in the playoffs in January and were back by Week 1), Mahomes uses his legs more than they ever did.

Barring a miraculous offseason, the Chiefs may enter 2026 no better than third in the AFC West odds, let alone the whole AFC. If that doesn’t spark some major changes by the organization, then I don’t know what will.

They’ve had their runs. They did things a certain way in 2018-21, then that got stale and they adjusted by trading Tyreek Hill and pulling off a strong draft class. That deteriorated too, but they almost got a three-peat out of it, so they ran it back for 2025 with the hope of better health luck, more blocking for Mahomes, more speed at receiver, and more takeaways on defense.

But that offensive line continuity lasted about five games. There appears to never have been a solid plan for how to create an offense centered around Rice and Worthy, and Reid never really knew what to do with new players like Thornton and Brashard Smith this year. The takeaways dried up even worse as the pressure packages fell off for Spags, who didn’t even have McDuffie available this week and who knows who else is done for the year with injuries piling up now. Even kicker Harrison Butker was so much worse this year you’d think Kamala had taken office in January.

Again, it’s so many different things, and it changed game to game, and yet the quarterback is the one who will somehow take the biggest shots for this failure of a season.

I was always hesitant early in the year to boast that Mahomes had a better Year 9 than Tom Brady, which was his 2008 ACL season. But he did by default, and at the end of the day, his Year 9 also became a lost ACL season.

For Brady, Year 10 (2009) was his choking dog year where he blew every close game after the Buffalo comeback in Week 1, then turned the ball over three times in the first quarter of the wild card loss to the Ravens, a 33-14 blowout where Joe Flacco had 4 completions.

I hope Mahomes can beat that season in 2026 too, but the Chiefs are going to have to really reinvent themselves here, because asking Mahomes to be Superman and have these games where he led the team in rushing and had to make more plays than ever out of structure did a number on him in the end.

They better hope this is his only season-ending injury, something most notable quarterbacks only had to deal with once in their long careers.

If 2025 doesn’t go down as by far the most frustrating, disappointing season of Mahomes’ career, then the Chiefs will have really done him wrong down the road.

Colts at Seahawks: Hello, My Name is Philip Rivers Jr. You Killed My Father. Prepare to Die.

A lot is wrong in the world right now, but the image of Philip Rivers laboring from the pocket in a one-score game in the fourth quarter in the late Sunday afternoon window is a real throwback to the 2010s.

So is watching him throw a game-ending interception like clockwork, but you have to give the guy a lot of credit for even trying. He went from celebrating his 44th birthday and five years of retirement on Tuesday to suiting up as a 2-touchdown road underdog against an elite defense five days later.

The fact his only turnover came in the last seconds when he was forced to throw something deep out of desperation after his defense wasted his go-ahead field goal in the final 50 seconds is a testament to his knowledge of where to go with the ball and quickly. Rivers was only sacked once in the game too.

Sure, there were some embarrassing snaps like when he fell down and had to get up before going down again. He looked about as unathletic as an NFL quarterback ever has on that play. And it’s not like he was pushing the ball down the field with luck. The Colts’ two longest pass plays gained 17 and 16 yards.

But if you compare how someone like Minnesota rookie Max Brosmer played against this Seattle defense, then Rivers looked great by comparison. Still, it’s another loss after the Seahawks made their sixth field goal of the game after they nearly gave this one away, trailing 13-3 early.

Rivers is one of the only true football psychopaths who would even try playing after being this far gone from the game. I imagine he’ll try to finish the season, and he’ll have better starts than this.

But it does say a lot about where young quarterbacks are in this league if he’s truly their best option right now. Still, this game could have been an absolute disaster and instead it was nearly an all-time upset.

Packers at Broncos: These Broncos Go to 11

We already had one home underdog on a 10-game winning streak lose on Sunday (Patriots), so it wasn’t about to be two with Denver hosting Green Bay. I’m proud to say I got both games right this week, and I liked Denver because of the home-field advantage and the way the Packers don’t usually create takeaways despite the presence of Micah Parsons and his pressure.

Well, unfortunately Parsons tore his ACL in this one, so there probably goes my Super Bowl pick in the NFC with Green Bay. They already lost Tucker Kraft to a torn ACL, so now you lose your best defender that was supposed to put you over the top, and wideout Christian Watson also got hurt (again) in this one, so that’s more bad news.

The Packers played well early but the Denver defense got some picks from Jordan Love, who we know can be reckless with the ball. So can Bo Nix, but he played maybe his best NFL game yet on Sunday with 4 touchdowns, which is again why I think he has that ability to be the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning of his generation and go on a Super Bowl run with some improbable devil luck going his way. He’s just got that flat liner approach to his game where the moment doesn’t seem to get too big for him against all expectations.

Love had the ball four times in the fourth quarter of a one-possession game, but the best he could do was a field goal early. He couldn’t get the offense moving on any of the three drives down 34-26.

It’s a big win for Denver (12-2), the 11th in a row, as it looks to get the No. 1 seed this year.

Lions at Rams: Sean McVay Is Cooking

The Rams got off to a bit of a slow start in this one with Aidan Hutchinson getting a pick, and Detroit led 24-14 at one point. But the Rams have really cranked up their rushing attack since the bye, and they had 159 more yards in this one to go along with 368 passing yards by Matthew Stafford, who also threw two touchdowns.

Puka Nacua dominated with 181 receiving yards on a day where Davante Adams left with a hamstring injury that could be troubling going forward. But the Detroit defense still had few answers for such a balanced, explosive, and efficient attack from the Rams who piled up 41 points and controlled the second half.

Jared Goff played well early, but three straight three-and-out drives to start the second half is where the game got away from the Lions, who were always in catch-up mode after that. They didn’t register a true 4QC attempt until there were 13 seconds left in a 41-34 game, only enough time for a lateral attempt 80 yards away from the end zone, which obviously didn’t come close to working.

The Lions (8-6) are in a tough spot for the playoffs now while the Rams (11-3) have that huge game in Seattle this Thursday.

Ravens at Bengals: (Joe Burrow’s) Misery

Joe Burrow raised some alarms with his words on his 29th birthday this week that he might already be thinking about an early retirement a la Andrew Luck. Others saw it as a cryptic message to management to shape up or ship him out a la Carson Palmer in 2011.

On Sunday, Burrow by his own words said he wouldn’t have helped any team win a game with his play. He suffered the first shutout (24-0) of his NFL career as the Bengals came up empty on nine drives as Burrow threw two picks under pressure, including a pick-six in the fourth quarter to make it 24-0.

It was one of the roughest Burrow games ever, and you could see it early when he took a sack that knocked them out of field goal range on a cold day. He didn’t have Tee Higgins (concussion), but he didn’t have him on Thanksgiving either and did much better than this.

The Ravens didn’t need to do a ton offensively with the way this one played out. Let the Bengals hold the ball for almost 40 minutes before they self-destructed. In fact, the Bengals had the highest time of possession (39:19) for a team that was shutout in NFL history. The previous record belongs to the 2014 Raiders (Derek Carr’s rookie year) with 36:56 TOP in a 52-0 loss at the Rams.

Not the kind of records you want to be setting.

Panthers at Saints: Maybe Tyler Shough Should Have Started Week 1…

Early this season, the Saints were competitive with Spencer Rattler at quarterback but they weren’t winning. Maybe they should have started Tyler Shough earlier? He’s done a good job, and on Sunday against Carolina, he led the first fourth-quarter comeback and second game-winning drive of his career in a 20-17 win.

But coach Kellen Moore and Shough did get a bit lucky on the game-winning drive here. Out of timeouts, I really don’t think a QB draw with 12 seconds left was a good idea. Who do you think you are, the 2021 Cowboys in the playoffs against the 49ers? Oh wait, Moore was the OC for that team too. But I think right there you either risk the clock running out before the spike, or you set up a 62-yard field goal that might be too long.

Instead, Moore and Shough got lucky when a late hit was called on the slide, and the kicker only had to make from 47 yards, which he did to win the game. That’s the first 4QC for the Saints this year.

If Shough can keep ascending, they might even be the new favorites in the NFC South, a wasteland division, in 2026.

Vikings at Cowboys: Season Over After Facing NINE

Notice they really didn’t show Jerry Jones after the opening interception when a tipped ball got J.J. McCarthy. That’s because he did very well the rest of the night, shredding that defense when he targeted everyone not named Justin Jefferson, who dropped a touchdown and finished with 22 yards on 2-of-8 catches. Just a weird night, but McCarthy had 3 total touchdowns and threw for a career-high 250 yards with no sacks taken.

The Vikings can cook with this type of quarterback, but he won’t see many defenses as bad as Dallas. On the other side, the Cowboys had yet another game where they settled for way too many field goals, Brandon Aubrey missed two of them for a bad night for his high standards, and George Pickens (33 yards) was again very quiet.

Just like that, Dallas is 6-7-1 and needs a miracle to make the playoffs that isn’t going to happen now. They could have at least gave us one more week of keeping it interesting, because I do think it’s possible for Washington to beat the Eagles once. And we know the Bills can beat that team in Buffalo.

Alas, it’s all but over for the Cowboys, who punted on the season before it even started with the Micah Parsons trade and gave us a little fool’s gold in November before the harsh reality of another long offseason with no deep playoff run for America’s Team.

Giving up 34 points to a quarterback like McCarthy, who became a meme for the face of sucking ass this year, is a fitting way to end things for the 2025 Cowboys, a team that deserves to finish 8-8-1.

Cardinals at Texans: It’s the Arizona Blowout Week

This week was the blowout loss for Arizona (40-20), and Jacoby Brissett threw for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns anyway, coming up 1 yard short of his 8th game this year with 250 and multiple scoring tosses.

But the offense had minus-7 yards by the time it was 17-0 in the first quarter as Houston jumped all over them early with a big touchdown pass to Nico Collins, then the Cardinals botched some special teams play to dig the hole early.

Houston (9-5) might just run the table playing like this in this AFC.

Raiders at Broncos: Kenny Pickett Is Not the Answer

JFC, I thought Kenny “OneDrive” Pickett could at least give me one touchdown drive. But the 2025 Raiders are the ultimate get-right game as they lost 31-0, almost as badly as when they lost 31-0 to the Chiefs, which was obviously an outlier for that team this year.

But Pickett, starting for the first time this year for an injured Geno Smith, was 15-of-25 for 64 yards with 4 sacks for 35 yards. So, he really didn’t contribute anything to the offense, which was held scoreless on eight drives (no first downs on 5 of them).

The Eagles made it look pretty easy. Dallas Goedert caught 2 short touchdowns and it should have been 3.

Jets at Jaguars: Have a Day, Trevor Lawrence

I never bought into the Aaron Glenn hiring since he had even worse of a defensive coordinator than Robert Saleh when he took the job for the Jets. At least Saleh could point to 2019 with the 49ers. Glenn’s resume is basically “I had Dan Campbell’s offense lighting it up and I wasn’t the worst defense in the league with a ton of guys on injured reserve last year.”

Because the Jets are terrible on defense under Glenn, and it’s hard to say they were any better before Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams were traded than they are without them.

But Sunday was certainly a low point in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars where they let Trevor Lawrence become the first quarterback ever to throw for 300 yards, rush for 50, and throw 5 touchdowns with 1 rushing score too.

Browns at Bears: Caleb Williams Is Fearless

Maybe I should have stuck to my narrative that the 2025 Browns are overrated on defense, because the Bears had few problems dropping 31 points on them in a blowout win. The defense came up with plenty of splash plays against rookie Shedeur Sanders (with an assist from Jerry Jeudy on a pick in the end zone), but Caleb Williams made some great throws and had one of his better games too this year.

Titans at 49ers: Third-and-Purdy

There used to be a ‘Third-and-Jimmy’ thing when Jimmy Garoppolo was the 49ers’ quarterback. He was unusually good at converting third downs in obvious passing situations, and maybe we should just give Kyle Shanahan some credit for those play calls and his scheme. Because apparently Brock Purdy has done some similar things, or at least he was cooking on third down on Sunday against maybe the worst team in the NFL in the Titans.

The 49ers were 9/15 on third down and the game had more points (37-24) than expected, though the spread (49ers -12.5) was on point. It seems like the Titans do better at scoring against NFC West teams than anyone else this year.

Commanders at Giants: No Late Darts

The Commanders (4-10) finally won their first game since Week 5, but they didn’t make it easy, losing two fumbles in the final 5:50 to give the Giants (3-11) a shot at a 15-point comeback late.

Chalk it up as another good data point for kicking the extra point first, because by making it a 29-21 game with 3:43 left, the Giants got a lucky break with a McNichols fumble, and Jaxson Dart was at midfield with 2:38 left in an 8-point game. There’s your chance to tie it. Unfortunately, he came up empty on 4th-and-8 at the Washington 38 to end the rally attempt.

Almost just as bad, Dart reportedly made his fifth trip to the blue tent for a concussion check this season before returning to finish the game. These Giants better invest in one hell of a good backup quarterback.

Next week: Week 16 could peak right away with Rams-Seahawks on Thursday night. Can Sam Darnold really keep losing to this team? Can Stafford lock up MVP with a big night in a huge game? Then we get two Saturday island games but at least the night one (Packers vs. Bears) could be good for the NFC North.

Sunday is probably the worst 1:00 PM slate of the year just because of the reality of these teams in Week 16. I guess Chargers-Cowboys is the standout. At 4:00, the Jags are in Denver and the Steelers are in Detroit. The SNF Patriots-Ravens game was flexed. Then I suppose we’ll see Rivers get another shot against the 49ers on Monday night to end it and maybe all but end the Colts’ playoff odds this year.

NFL 2025 Week 15 Predictions: The Return of Philip Rivers Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This 2025 NFL season has been crazy enough as is, but to bring back a 44-year-old Philip Rivers after five years away from the game? He’s literally a semifinalist for the 2026 HOF class at the moment. Then to call him up on a short week against an elite defense like Seattle? Good luck with that, but I’m not sure I’ve ever had more of a morbid curiosity in seeing how a game plays out than that one.

But beyond Rivers’ return, it is a fascinating week when you have multiple home underdogs who are on 10-game winning streaks in the Patriots and Broncos. Not only that, but they’re playing teams in the Bills and Packers who have some really bad losses as big favorites against the spread this season. Not to mention the Patriots already beat Buffalo in Buffalo.

Throw in the 6-7 Chiefs still being a 5.5-point favorite despite losing two in a row and losing to the 9-4 Chargers in Week 1, and I’m not sure if it’s the oddsmakers accurately assessing these new contenders in 2025, or if people are just betting with their hearts from last year and not adjusting to what’s going on this year.

Who’s right? Who’s actually a good team in 2025? It’s hard to say because it really does feel like a season where anyone can beat anybody, and these teams have four weeks to figure things out before the playoffs.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Award Races: Final Quarter Look at Stafford vs. Maye for MVP, Coach of the Year, and the Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons Debate
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 15: The Texans May Have Ended the Postseason Streak for Patrick Mahomes After Chiefs Drop the Ball
https://www.365scores.com/news/scotts-seven-nfl-picks-week-15-2025

In looking at the NFL awards going into the final quarter, I see a vision for how the MVP can be decided in Week 16, Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons for DPOY, and 6 coaches who can have a case for Coach of the Year. But if Philip Rivers plays well, he’s a lock for Comeback Player of the Year, something I didn’t even have time to consider when I wrote that Monday night.

As for the QB rankings, Patrick Mahomes undoubtedly was let down by drops more on Sunday night than any other game in his career.

For Week 15 picks, I have parlays for Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs, Dolphins-Steelers, and yes, a Philip Rivers-themed SGP.

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I had the Falcons covering on TNF, but what a crazy 14-point comeback that was. Tampa really blew multiple opportunities for game-ending fumble recoveries, and Baker Mayfield missed that game-sealing throw on 2nd-and-14. Just another brutal loss for the Bucs (7-7), another common division winner having a down year.

NYJ-JAX: Don’t love the Jags with such a huge spread but Brady Cook isn’t any good, right?

ARI-HOU: There’s a decent chance Jacoby Brissett puts up a better stat line against Houston than Allen and Mahomes did. But I don’t think Houston scores enough to cover the spread, but the Texans will win.

BUF-NE: I’m taking the Bills to remind NE who’s run this division since 2020. A lot of bad turnovers for the Bills in the first matchup but the defense played fine for a half. Stefon Diggs carried the passing game for NE. I think Buffalo clamps down and gets the split even if the Patriots are still winning the AFC East this year.

LAC-KC: I can’t trust the Chiefs to cover right now, especially not 5.5. Both QBs don’t have their starting OTs, but the Chiefs better find a way to get a pass rush going against the Chargers’ joke of a line. This is basically their last stand for this season mattering.

LV-PHI: Give me Kenny Pickett to cover the spread in a low-scoring game. But it sure would be hilarious if he led a GWD in Philly.

BAL-CIN: I prefer the over more than the spread here. But I think the Ravens protect the ball far better than on Thanksgiving and put up their share of points on the Bengals, who just can’t stop anyone again.

WAS-NYG: Division games are always weird but I think Jaxson Dart can win by 3 against a poor defense that J.J. McCarthy beat 31-0.

CLE-CHI: Just feels like a sloppy game where Caleb Williams might need to lead a GWD to get the win by 1-7.

TEN-SF: Don’t believe the Titans after last week’s win. I think the 49ers win by 14+

DET-LAR: Rams will play well at home while the Lions won’t be able to keep up with that offense. Not enough DBs to handle Puka and Davante.

CAR-NO: Saints could certainly pull off another upset, but I think Carolina makes the most of another Tampa loss and gets the win here. close game though.

GB-DEN: Going to trust the Broncos at home to get it done. Big shock that these defenses have 22 turnovers between them, but I think the Broncos pull it out in the 4Q.

IND-SEA: As long as Darnold doesn’t throw a pick parade, I think Seattle wins big. Rivers should play the whole game though. They have no one else. That’s why they’re desperate enough to start grandpa.

MIN-DAL: I like a Jefferson TD but Cowboys win by 7.

MIA-PIT: No T.J. Watt but still shouldn’t be an issue. Steelers have won 22 straight at home on MNF and it’s going to be under 20 degrees. Dolphins will turtle up on the road again.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.

  • The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
  • The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
  • The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
  • The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.

I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once.  However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.

As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Chiefs: Game of the Day

You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:

  • An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
  • No takeaways on defense again.
  • Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
  • Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
  • Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
  • Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
  • Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).

But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.

The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.

But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.

That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.

Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.

Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.

Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.

Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.

Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.

That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.

But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.

This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.

If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.

On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.

Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.

As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.

From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.

What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.

It’s a lost season.

Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was

This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.

You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.

Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.

Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:

That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.

Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.

There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.

That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.

But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.

The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.

But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.

Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.

But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.

Bears at Packers: Ben Johnson Was Right Again

Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.

On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.

But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.

But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.

These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.

Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be

I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard Knocks In-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.

But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.

Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.

It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.

But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.

Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.

Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.

But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.

This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.

He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.

I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.

Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.

Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025

I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.

The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.

Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.

But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.

Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?

With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.

Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.

But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.

I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:

  • 1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
  • 4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
  • 4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.

The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.

The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.

Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?

I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.

Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.

You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.

Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again

This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.

The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.

Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year

Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.

Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.

I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.

Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts

You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.

Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win

This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.

It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.

It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.

But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.

Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as  you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.

So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.

Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.

Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.

Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.

Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.

Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue

He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.

With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.

Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.

Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.

NFL 2025 Week 14 Predictions: The Day the Whole AFC Went Away Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s a really critical NFL Week 14 in the AFC with games like Colts vs. Jaguars, Bengals vs. Bills, Steelers vs. Ravens, and Texans vs. Chiefs.

It could be the day we circle back to as the day the Colts blew their shot in the AFC South, or the day the Steelers set themselves on the path to their first losing record since 2003, or even the day the Chiefs fell to 6-7 and went on to miss the playoffs.

Or it could jumpstart those teams on a run to the playoffs. We’ll just have to watch and see what happens today.

This Week’s Articles

Who Are the Super Bowl Contenders and Pretenders in This Wild 2025 NFL Season?
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 14: Joe Burrow Returns Just As Lamar Jackson’s Season Is Falling Apart in AFC North
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 14

The first link is a 6,000-word review of where the contenders stand right now, and why 2025 has been such a weird year for so many favorites struggling. Lots of talk about regression in turnovers, close games, and easy schedules.

The QB rankings look at Joe Burrow’s odd return, the curious case of Bryce Young, and the Vikings somehow found a quarterback even worse than J.J. McCarthy.

The NFL Week 14 picks have more detailed picks in what I like for Colts-Jags, Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Chiefs, and who I like to throw for more yards between Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward.

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Those Cowboys tricked me again. Same old Dallas: Allowed 44 points in a must-win type of game, George Pickens played poorly, and now they have to hope for the Eagles to collapse, which is possible this year.

MIA-NYJ: Is Tua really 7-0 against the Jets? Let’s make it 8-0.

SEA-ATL: Seahawks can be tricky with the spread but I think a 7-point win from that defense isn’t asking for much. They should make it hard on Kirk Cousins.

NO-TB: Bucs already beat them decisively on the road and have more weapons available now. Backdoor cover is always a possibility but I think they score enough to win by 10+ and get the sweep.

WAS-MIN: It sounds like Jayden Daniels is back, so I’m going with him to end this losing streak for the Commanders.

IND-JAX: Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and I think that streak lasts another year. Offense is struggling and the Jags can get the turnovers/pressure and have been scoring 25+ every week since the bye.

PIT-BAL: The old hedge pick, you never know with this rivalry that loves 3-point games. It sounds like we are getting Aaron Rodgers vs. Lamar Jackson for the first (last?) time in the NFL, though neither comes in playing that well. Can the Steelers stop Derrick Henry after giving up 249 yards last week? I’d be more inclined to pick the Steelers if they didn’t already look bad in their last two games against the Ravens, who seem to have their QB on the right page to deal with this overpaid, disappointing defense.

TEN-CLE: It doesn’t really say anything about Sanders vs. Ward to me. Just says the Browns have better coaching and a much better defense.

CIN-BUF: I’m hedging again as I think the Bengals had the Bills’ number in 2022-23, though we haven’t seen any other matchups outside of that. But the Bills are usually a home winner. They just rarely make it look pretty this year, and the Bengals have been playing better defense the last few games.

DEN-LV: We had to sit through their garbage 10-7 game on TNF a few weeks back. Hard to imagine the Denver offense makes it look that bad again in the afternoon window.

CHI-GB: Packers are home, Jayden Reed is back, and I think they find a way to win by 7 as I just don’t trust the Chicago passing game enough against a defense that has stepped up to most occasions this year. I know Chicago played them well last year, high stakes with the No. 1 seed up for grabs, and GB has been bad at covering spreads like this. But something just tells me GB 27-20.

LAR-ARI: Cardinals have played a lot of teams tough before losing. But I think the Rams roll and show last week was just a blip.

HOU-KC: I believe after Super Bowl 59 I said the next time the Chiefs had to face an elite defense without multiple OL starters, I can’t trust them to win anymore. Here we are, season likely on the line, and they get the No. 1 Houston defense in a game where they’ll be down 3 OL starters, including both tackles. That’s brutal timing, and the Texans are playing well too as a team. Chiefs play much better at home on defense which should be the key to grinding this one out. But Houston has held all but two teams under 21 points, so it’s just a really hard defense to score on and I could already see Nico Collins converting some 3rd-and-12 catch to ice the clock in a 20-17 final for the Texans. Prove me wrong, KC.

PHI-LAC: Going with the Eagles to end their 2-game slide. I still don’t trust the Chargers in games like this and Herbert is only a week removed from surgery. Think he panics to avoid a hit and gets picked.